{"title":"基于系统动力学的棘球蚴病控制措施优化。","authors":"Jinrui Ma, Xingyu Liu, Zengwen He, Haohao Zhang, Yonghui Ma, Ziqiu Fan, Xuehui Zhao, Ji Zhi, Qing Cao, Huiwen Xue, Huitian Gou","doi":"10.1371/journal.pcbi.1013186","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>This study aimed to provide strategies to optimize the prevention and control measures of echinococcosis in Gansu Province. Based on the transmission mechanism of echinococcosis, a System Dynamics (SD) model of echinococcosis in Gansu Province was established using Vensim software. Through this model, parameters such as vaccination coverage, domestic dog deworming coverage, slaughter management level, and health education level were adjusted to predict the changing trends in the number of human cases and infected sheep. The results showed that the number of human cases was most sensitive to the adjustment of health education level, followed by changes to vaccination coverage. The number of infected sheep was most sensitive to the adjustment of vaccination coverage, followed by the adjustment of slaughter management level. Based on these simulation results, the prevention and control measures for echinococcosis in Gansu Province were further optimized. The results showed that if the health education level and the vaccination coverage were increased by 50% and 40%, respectively, based on the current prevention and control levels, the number of human cases would approach zero by approximately 2026. When the vaccination coverage and slaughter management level increased by 60% and 45%, respectively, based on current prevention and control levels, the number of infected sheep would approach zero by approximately 2027. This study applied the SD method to the prevention and control of echinococcosis for the first time, and the results can provide key decision-making recommendations to optimize the prevention and control measures of echinococcosis in Gansu province.</p>","PeriodicalId":20241,"journal":{"name":"PLoS Computational Biology","volume":"21 9","pages":"e1013186"},"PeriodicalIF":3.6000,"publicationDate":"2025-09-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12483238/pdf/","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Optimization of echinococcosis control measures based on system dynamics.\",\"authors\":\"Jinrui Ma, Xingyu Liu, Zengwen He, Haohao Zhang, Yonghui Ma, Ziqiu Fan, Xuehui Zhao, Ji Zhi, Qing Cao, Huiwen Xue, Huitian Gou\",\"doi\":\"10.1371/journal.pcbi.1013186\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<p><p>This study aimed to provide strategies to optimize the prevention and control measures of echinococcosis in Gansu Province. Based on the transmission mechanism of echinococcosis, a System Dynamics (SD) model of echinococcosis in Gansu Province was established using Vensim software. Through this model, parameters such as vaccination coverage, domestic dog deworming coverage, slaughter management level, and health education level were adjusted to predict the changing trends in the number of human cases and infected sheep. The results showed that the number of human cases was most sensitive to the adjustment of health education level, followed by changes to vaccination coverage. The number of infected sheep was most sensitive to the adjustment of vaccination coverage, followed by the adjustment of slaughter management level. Based on these simulation results, the prevention and control measures for echinococcosis in Gansu Province were further optimized. The results showed that if the health education level and the vaccination coverage were increased by 50% and 40%, respectively, based on the current prevention and control levels, the number of human cases would approach zero by approximately 2026. When the vaccination coverage and slaughter management level increased by 60% and 45%, respectively, based on current prevention and control levels, the number of infected sheep would approach zero by approximately 2027. This study applied the SD method to the prevention and control of echinococcosis for the first time, and the results can provide key decision-making recommendations to optimize the prevention and control measures of echinococcosis in Gansu province.</p>\",\"PeriodicalId\":20241,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"PLoS Computational Biology\",\"volume\":\"21 9\",\"pages\":\"e1013186\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":3.6000,\"publicationDate\":\"2025-09-30\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12483238/pdf/\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"PLoS Computational Biology\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"99\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1013186\",\"RegionNum\":2,\"RegionCategory\":\"生物学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"2025/9/1 0:00:00\",\"PubModel\":\"eCollection\",\"JCR\":\"Q1\",\"JCRName\":\"BIOCHEMICAL RESEARCH METHODS\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"PLoS Computational Biology","FirstCategoryId":"99","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1013186","RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"生物学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"2025/9/1 0:00:00","PubModel":"eCollection","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"BIOCHEMICAL RESEARCH METHODS","Score":null,"Total":0}
Optimization of echinococcosis control measures based on system dynamics.
This study aimed to provide strategies to optimize the prevention and control measures of echinococcosis in Gansu Province. Based on the transmission mechanism of echinococcosis, a System Dynamics (SD) model of echinococcosis in Gansu Province was established using Vensim software. Through this model, parameters such as vaccination coverage, domestic dog deworming coverage, slaughter management level, and health education level were adjusted to predict the changing trends in the number of human cases and infected sheep. The results showed that the number of human cases was most sensitive to the adjustment of health education level, followed by changes to vaccination coverage. The number of infected sheep was most sensitive to the adjustment of vaccination coverage, followed by the adjustment of slaughter management level. Based on these simulation results, the prevention and control measures for echinococcosis in Gansu Province were further optimized. The results showed that if the health education level and the vaccination coverage were increased by 50% and 40%, respectively, based on the current prevention and control levels, the number of human cases would approach zero by approximately 2026. When the vaccination coverage and slaughter management level increased by 60% and 45%, respectively, based on current prevention and control levels, the number of infected sheep would approach zero by approximately 2027. This study applied the SD method to the prevention and control of echinococcosis for the first time, and the results can provide key decision-making recommendations to optimize the prevention and control measures of echinococcosis in Gansu province.
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