Ye Ju, Jinlei Wang, Xiaohong Shi, Wentao Chi, Chenguang Zhan
{"title":"封闭入路自体颗粒肋软骨鼻成形术术后并发症的影响因素分析及影像学图的构建与验证。","authors":"Ye Ju, Jinlei Wang, Xiaohong Shi, Wentao Chi, Chenguang Zhan","doi":"10.3389/fsurg.2025.1599790","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Objective: </strong>To construct a nomogram prediction model based on the risk factors of complications after augmentation rhinoplasty with autogenous granular costal cartilage through closed approach, and to explore its clinical application value.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>From June 2022 to June 2024, 214 patients in our hospital were selected and divided into training set (<i>n</i> = 150) and verification set (<i>n</i> = 64) according to the ratio of 7:3. In the training set, the risk factors of postoperative complications were analyzed by multivariate Logistic regression, and then the nomogram prediction model was constructed. The prediction efficiency of the model is evaluated by drawing ROC curve and calibration curve, and verified in the verification set. The decision curve analysis (DCA) was used to evaluate the clinical application value of the model.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>Complications occurred in 31 cases (20.67%) in the training group and 13 cases (20.31%) in the verification group. There was no significant difference in the incidence and clinical characteristics between the two groups (<i>P</i> > 0.05). In the training set, older age, history of chronic diseases (chronic rhinitis), long operation time, large amount of bleeding during operation and thin skin on the back of nose were independent risk factors for complications (<i>P</i> < 0.05), and a nomogram prediction model was established accordingly. The model has good calibration and fitting degree in training set and verification set (C-index index is 0.857 and 0.848, average absolute error is 0.126 and 0.090, and <i>χ</i> <sup>2</sup> of Hosmer-Lemeshow test is 7.137, <i>P</i> = 0.521 and <i>χ</i> <sup>2</sup> = 5.923, <i>P</i> = 0.655). The ROC curve shows that the AUC of the training set and the validation set model for predicting postoperative complications are 0.851(95% CI: 0.764-0.937) and 0.855(95% CI: 0.675-1.000), and the sensitivity and specificity are 0.880, 0.725, 0.833 and 0.692, respectively.</p><p><strong>Conclusion: </strong>The nomogram prediction model based on risk factors is helpful for early prediction of complications after augmentation rhinoplasty, providing guidance for clinical decision-making, helping to reduce the risk of complications and improving the surgical effect and patient satisfaction.</p>","PeriodicalId":12564,"journal":{"name":"Frontiers in Surgery","volume":"12 ","pages":"1599790"},"PeriodicalIF":1.6000,"publicationDate":"2025-09-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12477204/pdf/","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Analysis of influencing factors on postoperative complications of closed approach autologous granular rib cartilage rhinoplasty and construction and verification of nomogram.\",\"authors\":\"Ye Ju, Jinlei Wang, Xiaohong Shi, Wentao Chi, Chenguang Zhan\",\"doi\":\"10.3389/fsurg.2025.1599790\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<p><strong>Objective: </strong>To construct a nomogram prediction model based on the risk factors of complications after augmentation rhinoplasty with autogenous granular costal cartilage through closed approach, and to explore its clinical application value.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>From June 2022 to June 2024, 214 patients in our hospital were selected and divided into training set (<i>n</i> = 150) and verification set (<i>n</i> = 64) according to the ratio of 7:3. In the training set, the risk factors of postoperative complications were analyzed by multivariate Logistic regression, and then the nomogram prediction model was constructed. The prediction efficiency of the model is evaluated by drawing ROC curve and calibration curve, and verified in the verification set. The decision curve analysis (DCA) was used to evaluate the clinical application value of the model.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>Complications occurred in 31 cases (20.67%) in the training group and 13 cases (20.31%) in the verification group. There was no significant difference in the incidence and clinical characteristics between the two groups (<i>P</i> > 0.05). In the training set, older age, history of chronic diseases (chronic rhinitis), long operation time, large amount of bleeding during operation and thin skin on the back of nose were independent risk factors for complications (<i>P</i> < 0.05), and a nomogram prediction model was established accordingly. The model has good calibration and fitting degree in training set and verification set (C-index index is 0.857 and 0.848, average absolute error is 0.126 and 0.090, and <i>χ</i> <sup>2</sup> of Hosmer-Lemeshow test is 7.137, <i>P</i> = 0.521 and <i>χ</i> <sup>2</sup> = 5.923, <i>P</i> = 0.655). The ROC curve shows that the AUC of the training set and the validation set model for predicting postoperative complications are 0.851(95% CI: 0.764-0.937) and 0.855(95% CI: 0.675-1.000), and the sensitivity and specificity are 0.880, 0.725, 0.833 and 0.692, respectively.</p><p><strong>Conclusion: </strong>The nomogram prediction model based on risk factors is helpful for early prediction of complications after augmentation rhinoplasty, providing guidance for clinical decision-making, helping to reduce the risk of complications and improving the surgical effect and patient satisfaction.</p>\",\"PeriodicalId\":12564,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Frontiers in Surgery\",\"volume\":\"12 \",\"pages\":\"1599790\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":1.6000,\"publicationDate\":\"2025-09-15\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12477204/pdf/\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Frontiers in Surgery\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"3\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.3389/fsurg.2025.1599790\",\"RegionNum\":4,\"RegionCategory\":\"医学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"2025/1/1 0:00:00\",\"PubModel\":\"eCollection\",\"JCR\":\"Q2\",\"JCRName\":\"SURGERY\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Frontiers in Surgery","FirstCategoryId":"3","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.3389/fsurg.2025.1599790","RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"2025/1/1 0:00:00","PubModel":"eCollection","JCR":"Q2","JCRName":"SURGERY","Score":null,"Total":0}
Analysis of influencing factors on postoperative complications of closed approach autologous granular rib cartilage rhinoplasty and construction and verification of nomogram.
Objective: To construct a nomogram prediction model based on the risk factors of complications after augmentation rhinoplasty with autogenous granular costal cartilage through closed approach, and to explore its clinical application value.
Methods: From June 2022 to June 2024, 214 patients in our hospital were selected and divided into training set (n = 150) and verification set (n = 64) according to the ratio of 7:3. In the training set, the risk factors of postoperative complications were analyzed by multivariate Logistic regression, and then the nomogram prediction model was constructed. The prediction efficiency of the model is evaluated by drawing ROC curve and calibration curve, and verified in the verification set. The decision curve analysis (DCA) was used to evaluate the clinical application value of the model.
Results: Complications occurred in 31 cases (20.67%) in the training group and 13 cases (20.31%) in the verification group. There was no significant difference in the incidence and clinical characteristics between the two groups (P > 0.05). In the training set, older age, history of chronic diseases (chronic rhinitis), long operation time, large amount of bleeding during operation and thin skin on the back of nose were independent risk factors for complications (P < 0.05), and a nomogram prediction model was established accordingly. The model has good calibration and fitting degree in training set and verification set (C-index index is 0.857 and 0.848, average absolute error is 0.126 and 0.090, and χ2 of Hosmer-Lemeshow test is 7.137, P = 0.521 and χ2 = 5.923, P = 0.655). The ROC curve shows that the AUC of the training set and the validation set model for predicting postoperative complications are 0.851(95% CI: 0.764-0.937) and 0.855(95% CI: 0.675-1.000), and the sensitivity and specificity are 0.880, 0.725, 0.833 and 0.692, respectively.
Conclusion: The nomogram prediction model based on risk factors is helpful for early prediction of complications after augmentation rhinoplasty, providing guidance for clinical decision-making, helping to reduce the risk of complications and improving the surgical effect and patient satisfaction.
期刊介绍：
Evidence of surgical interventions go back to prehistoric times. Since then, the field of surgery has developed into a complex array of specialties and procedures, particularly with the advent of microsurgery, lasers and minimally invasive techniques. The advanced skills now required from surgeons has led to ever increasing specialization, though these still share important fundamental principles.
Frontiers in Surgery is the umbrella journal representing the publication interests of all surgical specialties. It is divided into several “Specialty Sections” listed below. All these sections have their own Specialty Chief Editor, Editorial Board and homepage, but all articles carry the citation Frontiers in Surgery.
Frontiers in Surgery calls upon medical professionals and scientists from all surgical specialties to publish their experimental and clinical studies in this journal. By assembling all surgical specialties, which nonetheless retain their independence, under the common umbrella of Frontiers in Surgery, a powerful publication venue is created. Since there is often overlap and common ground between the different surgical specialties, assembly of all surgical disciplines into a single journal will foster a collaborative dialogue amongst the surgical community. This means that publications, which are also of interest to other surgical specialties, will reach a wider audience and have greater impact.
The aim of this multidisciplinary journal is to create a discussion and knowledge platform of advances and research findings in surgical practice today to continuously improve clinical management of patients and foster innovation in this field.
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