Vietnam’s growing economic integration with the world: more or less Asian?

This paper analyzes Vietnam’s growing economic integration with the rest of the world, illustrating its changing position in global investment and trade amidst recent US-China geopolitical competition, in addition to longer-term supply chain reorientation. Examining longitudinal data on foreign direct investment (FDI) and trade over the past two decades, the paper makes three arguments. First, the East Asian economies have collectively emerged as significant providers of FDI to Vietnam. In particular, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), Japan, Korea, and Taiwan have challenged and even usurped the EU and the USA, especially in the wake of the 2008 global economic crisis. This also suggests Vietnam’s tighter integration into what is loosely termed “Factory Asia.” Second, Vietnam has indeed become a “connector economy” interlinking the US and Chinese economies. Vietnam’s imports are heavily dependent on key Northeast Asian economies, particularly China, while its exports are largely driven by demand from the US market. Our analysis demonstrates Vietnam’s conformance to the “supply in East, consume in West” model that earlier regional industrializers adopted in their high-growth era. Third, Vietnam’s openness towards FDI has indirectly stunted its domestic technological advancement. FDI has largely been directed towards export-oriented industries that are usually enclaved, resulting in modest linkages with Vietnam’s domestic firms. Bypassed by such FDI, Vietnamese firms primarily operate in cosseted industries like real estate, retail, and other services, with meager involvement in export and long-term capability building.