Epidemiological trends and incidence prediction of periodontal disease based on the Global Burden of Disease study 2021.

Objective: This study aims to assess the burden and long-term trends of periodontal disease at the global level, and to predict future trends.

Methods: Age-standardized YLD rates (ASYRs) of periodontal disease were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease Study database. Estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) was calculated. The time trend of ASYRs caused by periodontal disease was quantified. ARIMA and ES models were used to predict the future trend of periodontal disease.

Results: In 2021, DALYs and YLDs caused by periodontal disease at the global level were 173.97 person-years and 173.97 person-years, respectively. The number of cases was 5,077,653, the prevalence rate was 27,093/100,000, and the incidence rate was 1,855/100,000. From 1990 to 2021, the burden of periodontal disease showed a downward trend. DALYS, YLDs and prevalence were the highest in low SDI and low-middle SDI areas, but the incidence was lower. In 2021, the incidence rate was the highest in tropical Latin America, and the DALY burden was the heaviest in high-income and low-income areas of the Commonwealth, showing the same trend globally. There was a negative correlation between periodontal disease burden and sociodemographic index (SDI). Based on the ARIMA model, the age-standardized incidence of periodontal disease is expected to decrease to 1,854.07/100,000 by 2050. The age-standardized incidence of periodontal disease will be reduced to 1,858.60/100,000. The ES model is more conservative, and it is expected that by 2050, the age-standardized incidence of periodontal disease will be reduced to 1,828.73/100,000. The age-standardized incidence of periodontal disease will be reduced to 1,841.50/100,000.

Conclusion: ASYRs caused by global periodontal disease have decreased slightly, but they will continue to cause huge losses to healthy life in the future due to population aging and longer life expectancy. It is suggested that the prevention and treatment of periodontal disease should be carried out effectively in combination with the distribution characteristics and causes of periodontal disease in the world.