Study on the spreading amplification effect of compound disaster rumors involving multiple public safety events

A compound disaster rumor is a special type of rumor that involves multiple public safety events. Its pattern of spread is distinct from that of a general disaster rumor, which involves one public safety event. This work examines and verifies the amplification effect of the spread of compound disaster rumors (relative to general disaster rumors). A new rumor spread model based on infectious disease dynamics is proposed for compound disaster rumors involving two simultaneously occurring public safety events. The new model considers a special group of people, termed “double-hazard sensitive ignorants.” Taking this group as the initial crowd, it adds a new spread chain to existing rumor spread models. This modeling method successfully captures the amplification effect of the spread of compound disaster rumors involving two public safety events. A real case is selected for empirical analysis: the spread of a compound disaster rumor in a double-hazard scenario, consisting of an earthquake and the pandemic, in Sichuan, China in 2022. The results confirm that the spread of a pandemic-related natural disaster compound rumor has a higher peak than that of a general disaster rumor. The new model is applied in this real scenario and captures the amplification effect of the spread of compound rumors. Our study sheds light on the spreading pattern of compound disaster rumors, thereby providing guidance and assistance for future disaster rumor management.