The risk spillover between the crude oil market and the tanker market under the influence of the carbon market

The low-carbon development of the shipping and crude oil markets is crucial for achieving the EU’s energy and climate goals. Based on the background of the role of the global carbon market, this paper investigates the risk linkage issue between the crude oil and oil tanker markets. Through the Vine-copula-CoVaR model, this paper reveals the cross-market dynamic risk spillover mechanism and measures the risk spillover effects. The results show that: (1) With the extension of the time scale, the impact of carbon market fluctuations on the crude oil and tanker markets is changing, and the degree of long-term risk spillover is greater than that of short-term risk spillover. (2) Carbon market regulation restructures the traditional relationship between the crude oil and tanker markets. (3) Under time–frequency conditions, the CoVaR values of both the tanker and crude oil markets are systematically higher than the VaR values, which means that the risks from the carbon market will amplify the extreme risks of tankers and crude oil systems. (4) The risk spillover relationship during market crisis is stronger than that during stable period. (5) As the time scale extends, the correlation between the carbon market and the oil tanker market gradually increases, and there is a strong intrinsic linkage mechanism between the carbon market and the crude oil market.