{"title":"分布式混合洪水建模框架:将物理机制与深度学习相结合以提高效率和准确性","authors":"Miao He, Shanhu Jiang, Liliang Ren, Hao Cui, Shuping Du, Yongwei Zhu, Mingming Ren, Tianling Qin, Xiaoli Yang, Xiuqin Fang, Chong‐Yu Xu","doi":"10.1029/2025wr039932","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"To address the limitations of process‐driven models in characterizing physical mechanisms and the interpretability challenges of data‐driven models in flood forecasting, this study proposes a distributed hybrid flood modeling (DHFM) framework that integrates physical mechanisms with deep learning. Differentiable diffusion wave (DW) and convolutional neural network (CNN) routing methods are introduced, which can be seamlessly integrated into the DHFM framework. A differentiable Muskingum (MK) routing method is also implemented as a benchmark. The Mishui Basin in China is selected as a case study to systematically evaluate the performance and interpretability of these three routing methods under both gauged and ungauged scenarios. Results show that the DHFM framework can effectively achieve physical parameterization across different sub‐basins. Compared to the lumped Xin'anjiang hydrological model, it achieve <jats:italic>s</jats:italic> higher accuracy in both daily streamflow and flood simulations, while also demonstrating favorable interpretability of the embedded neural network. Under gauged scenarios, the differentiable CNN method slightly outperforms DW in terms of performance and efficiency, and significantly surpasses MK. As the number of training stations increases, model performance tends to stabilize or decline. In ungauged scenarios, CNN performs well with sufficient training data (>2 stations) but is sensitive to station selection, exhibiting a substantial performance drop with only one station. In contrast, DW and MK show greater stability. The differentiable CNN method shows potential for adaptively learning unit hydrographs based on channel attributes. The proposed DHFM framework not only enhances flood simulation accuracy but also provides novel perspectives for understanding the physical mechanisms underlying flood processes.","PeriodicalId":23799,"journal":{"name":"Water Resources Research","volume":"65 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.0000,"publicationDate":"2025-09-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Distributed Hybrid Flood Modeling Framework: Integrating Physical Mechanisms With Deep Learning for Enhanced Efficiency and Accuracy\",\"authors\":\"Miao He, Shanhu Jiang, Liliang Ren, Hao Cui, Shuping Du, Yongwei Zhu, Mingming Ren, Tianling Qin, Xiaoli Yang, Xiuqin Fang, Chong‐Yu Xu\",\"doi\":\"10.1029/2025wr039932\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"To address the limitations of process‐driven models in characterizing physical mechanisms and the interpretability challenges of data‐driven models in flood forecasting, this study proposes a distributed hybrid flood modeling (DHFM) framework that integrates physical mechanisms with deep learning. Differentiable diffusion wave (DW) and convolutional neural network (CNN) routing methods are introduced, which can be seamlessly integrated into the DHFM framework. A differentiable Muskingum (MK) routing method is also implemented as a benchmark. The Mishui Basin in China is selected as a case study to systematically evaluate the performance and interpretability of these three routing methods under both gauged and ungauged scenarios. Results show that the DHFM framework can effectively achieve physical parameterization across different sub‐basins. Compared to the lumped Xin'anjiang hydrological model, it achieve <jats:italic>s</jats:italic> higher accuracy in both daily streamflow and flood simulations, while also demonstrating favorable interpretability of the embedded neural network. Under gauged scenarios, the differentiable CNN method slightly outperforms DW in terms of performance and efficiency, and significantly surpasses MK. As the number of training stations increases, model performance tends to stabilize or decline. In ungauged scenarios, CNN performs well with sufficient training data (>2 stations) but is sensitive to station selection, exhibiting a substantial performance drop with only one station. In contrast, DW and MK show greater stability. The differentiable CNN method shows potential for adaptively learning unit hydrographs based on channel attributes. The proposed DHFM framework not only enhances flood simulation accuracy but also provides novel perspectives for understanding the physical mechanisms underlying flood processes.\",\"PeriodicalId\":23799,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Water Resources Research\",\"volume\":\"65 1\",\"pages\":\"\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":5.0000,\"publicationDate\":\"2025-09-27\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Water Resources Research\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"89\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.1029/2025wr039932\",\"RegionNum\":1,\"RegionCategory\":\"地球科学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q2\",\"JCRName\":\"ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Water Resources Research","FirstCategoryId":"89","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2025wr039932","RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q2","JCRName":"ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES","Score":null,"Total":0}
Distributed Hybrid Flood Modeling Framework: Integrating Physical Mechanisms With Deep Learning for Enhanced Efficiency and Accuracy
To address the limitations of process‐driven models in characterizing physical mechanisms and the interpretability challenges of data‐driven models in flood forecasting, this study proposes a distributed hybrid flood modeling (DHFM) framework that integrates physical mechanisms with deep learning. Differentiable diffusion wave (DW) and convolutional neural network (CNN) routing methods are introduced, which can be seamlessly integrated into the DHFM framework. A differentiable Muskingum (MK) routing method is also implemented as a benchmark. The Mishui Basin in China is selected as a case study to systematically evaluate the performance and interpretability of these three routing methods under both gauged and ungauged scenarios. Results show that the DHFM framework can effectively achieve physical parameterization across different sub‐basins. Compared to the lumped Xin'anjiang hydrological model, it achieve s higher accuracy in both daily streamflow and flood simulations, while also demonstrating favorable interpretability of the embedded neural network. Under gauged scenarios, the differentiable CNN method slightly outperforms DW in terms of performance and efficiency, and significantly surpasses MK. As the number of training stations increases, model performance tends to stabilize or decline. In ungauged scenarios, CNN performs well with sufficient training data (>2 stations) but is sensitive to station selection, exhibiting a substantial performance drop with only one station. In contrast, DW and MK show greater stability. The differentiable CNN method shows potential for adaptively learning unit hydrographs based on channel attributes. The proposed DHFM framework not only enhances flood simulation accuracy but also provides novel perspectives for understanding the physical mechanisms underlying flood processes.
期刊介绍:
Water Resources Research (WRR) is an interdisciplinary journal that focuses on hydrology and water resources. It publishes original research in the natural and social sciences of water. It emphasizes the role of water in the Earth system, including physical, chemical, biological, and ecological processes in water resources research and management, including social, policy, and public health implications. It encompasses observational, experimental, theoretical, analytical, numerical, and data-driven approaches that advance the science of water and its management. Submissions are evaluated for their novelty, accuracy, significance, and broader implications of the findings.