分布式混合洪水建模框架:将物理机制与深度学习相结合以提高效率和准确性

IF 5 1区 地球科学 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
Miao He, Shanhu Jiang, Liliang Ren, Hao Cui, Shuping Du, Yongwei Zhu, Mingming Ren, Tianling Qin, Xiaoli Yang, Xiuqin Fang, Chong‐Yu Xu
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引用次数: 0

摘要

为了解决过程驱动模型在表征物理机制方面的局限性以及数据驱动模型在洪水预报中的可解释性挑战,本研究提出了一个将物理机制与深度学习相结合的分布式混合洪水建模(DHFM)框架。引入了可微扩散波(DW)和卷积神经网络(CNN)路由方法,可以无缝集成到DHFM框架中。实现了一种可微Muskingum (MK)路由方法作为基准。以中国三水盆地为例,系统评价了这三种路由方法在计量和非计量情景下的性能和可解释性。结果表明,DHFM框架可以有效地实现不同子盆地的物理参数化。与集总新安江水文模型相比,该模型在日流量和洪水模拟中均具有更高的精度,同时也显示了嵌入式神经网络良好的可解释性。在测量场景下,可微CNN方法在性能和效率方面略优于DW,并显著超过MK。随着训练站数量的增加,模型性能趋于稳定或下降。在未测量的场景中,CNN在训练数据充足(2个站点)的情况下表现良好,但对站点选择很敏感,只有一个站点时表现出明显的性能下降。相比之下,DW和MK表现出更大的稳定性。可微CNN方法显示了基于信道属性自适应学习单元线的潜力。提出的DHFM框架不仅提高了洪水模拟的精度,而且为理解洪水过程的物理机制提供了新的视角。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Distributed Hybrid Flood Modeling Framework: Integrating Physical Mechanisms With Deep Learning for Enhanced Efficiency and Accuracy
To address the limitations of process‐driven models in characterizing physical mechanisms and the interpretability challenges of data‐driven models in flood forecasting, this study proposes a distributed hybrid flood modeling (DHFM) framework that integrates physical mechanisms with deep learning. Differentiable diffusion wave (DW) and convolutional neural network (CNN) routing methods are introduced, which can be seamlessly integrated into the DHFM framework. A differentiable Muskingum (MK) routing method is also implemented as a benchmark. The Mishui Basin in China is selected as a case study to systematically evaluate the performance and interpretability of these three routing methods under both gauged and ungauged scenarios. Results show that the DHFM framework can effectively achieve physical parameterization across different sub‐basins. Compared to the lumped Xin'anjiang hydrological model, it achieve s higher accuracy in both daily streamflow and flood simulations, while also demonstrating favorable interpretability of the embedded neural network. Under gauged scenarios, the differentiable CNN method slightly outperforms DW in terms of performance and efficiency, and significantly surpasses MK. As the number of training stations increases, model performance tends to stabilize or decline. In ungauged scenarios, CNN performs well with sufficient training data (>2 stations) but is sensitive to station selection, exhibiting a substantial performance drop with only one station. In contrast, DW and MK show greater stability. The differentiable CNN method shows potential for adaptively learning unit hydrographs based on channel attributes. The proposed DHFM framework not only enhances flood simulation accuracy but also provides novel perspectives for understanding the physical mechanisms underlying flood processes.
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来源期刊
Water Resources Research
Water Resources Research 环境科学-湖沼学
CiteScore
8.80
自引率
13.00%
发文量
599
审稿时长
3.5 months
期刊介绍: Water Resources Research (WRR) is an interdisciplinary journal that focuses on hydrology and water resources. It publishes original research in the natural and social sciences of water. It emphasizes the role of water in the Earth system, including physical, chemical, biological, and ecological processes in water resources research and management, including social, policy, and public health implications. It encompasses observational, experimental, theoretical, analytical, numerical, and data-driven approaches that advance the science of water and its management. Submissions are evaluated for their novelty, accuracy, significance, and broader implications of the findings.
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