Mariano Poisson, Pascal Démoulin, Marcelo López Fuentes, Cristina H. Mandrini
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Bayesian Modeling of Emerging Bipolar Active Regions from Solar Cycle 23
Active regions (ARs) are the photospheric manifestations of emerging magnetic flux ropes (FRs) formed in the solar interior. We analyze the emergence of 126 bipolar ARs during Solar Cycle 23 using a flux rope model, whose parameters are inferred through a Bayesian inference method. This approach allows us to estimate key sub-photospheric properties of FRs. We find that the Bayesian method effectively captures the global magnetic characteristics of ARs, with discrepancies primarily arising in the later stages of emergence. We examine the ability of a flux-balanced FR model with a symmetric circular cross-section to reproduce polarity shapes during these late stages. Additionally, we analyze how the inclination of the FR legs provides insight into the emergence stage. We propose an improved method for estimating the separation of polarities, which decreases projection effects and flux distribution biases. Furthermore, we confirm a strong correlation between the AR flux and the distance between the main polarities, as well as the evolution of their separation speed. Finally, we identify a characteristic ratio between the thickness of the FR and its curvature radius, suggesting an underlying physical mechanism governing this ratio.
期刊介绍:
Solar Physics was founded in 1967 and is the principal journal for the publication of the results of fundamental research on the Sun. The journal treats all aspects of solar physics, ranging from the internal structure of the Sun and its evolution to the outer corona and solar wind in interplanetary space. Papers on solar-terrestrial physics and on stellar research are also published when their results have a direct bearing on our understanding of the Sun.