Spatial and temporal evolution of shrimp farming in coastal provinces of China over the past 20 years and its driving mechanisms

Research on the spatial and temporal distribution of shrimp mariculture can provide a reference for the optimization of the spatial distribution and sustainable development of the shrimp mariculture industry. In recent years, most of the domestic shrimp research focuses on biological characteristics, shrimp breeding, and environmental factors, with limited studies on the overall distribution patterns of large-scale marine shrimp farming.11 provinces along the coast of China were selected as the study area to investigate the spatial and temporal evolution characteristics of the four types of shrimp marine aquaculture production and their spatial differences in driving factors over the past 20 years. The results showed that: (1) The production and farming area of Litopenaeus vannamei (LV) were the highest among the four types of shrimp and increased exponentially over time. The farming area of the other three shrimp species showed a decreasing trend; (2) The farming centers of LV and Penaeus monodon (PM) are located in the southern regions, while those of Fenneropenaeus chinensis (FC) and Marsupenaeus japonicus (MJ) are in the northern regions. The farming centers of all four types of shrimp have shifted to varying degrees, with farming area being the main factor influencing the movement of these centers; (3) Regarding driving factors, wild catch, farming area, and extension personnel are the leading factors in the spatial differences in production, and the interaction between the factors ultimately led to spatial differences in shrimp production; (4) Comparison of different sea areas revealed that shrimp in the South China Sea region is mainly farmed in sea water, while the northern regions rely more on freshwater farming. The yield of shrimp per unit area in the South China Sea can reach up to 14 t/ha, which is significantly higher than that in the northern region; (5) Using the established regression model to predict the production and area of LV, its production and area in the next five years to maintain a sustained growth trend. The results can provide support for the formulation of relevant government policies, thus promoting the healthy development of shrimp mariculture.