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IF 4.2 2区工程技术 Q3 ENGINEERING, ENVIRONMENTAL

Bulletin of Engineering Geology and the Environment Pub Date : 2025-07-15 DOI:10.1007/s10064-025-04415-8

Kezhen Yao, Stefano Luigi Gariano, Bin Tong, Saini Yang

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引用次数: 0

摘要

（如滑坡、泥石流、岩崩）由于其地貌、气候特征和人为活动。然而，由于缺乏灾害清单和雨量计测量，对这些事件及其触发特征的了解仍然有限。本研究利用记录良好的质量运动数据集（2001-2022年）和卫星降雨估计，全面分析了这些事件及其触发因素的时空格局。结果表明，降雨是主要因素，占死亡和损失的大部分，其中发生当天和7天前的降雨是主要触发因素。在QTP中首次计算的不同非超标概率下的经验降雨阈值具有较高的参数鲁棒性和检测能力。一种评估触发降雨阈值时间演变的新方法表明，在过去十年中，触发降雨阈值有明显的下降趋势，这表明青藏高原景观经历了更有利的质量运动触发条件，特别是在长时间降雨的情况下。降雨触发条件在几个环境分区中存在空间差异，表明景观对不同诱发条件的适应，频率较低的区域显示出较低的阈值。这项工作提高了对这一特殊高山地区降雨引起的群众运动的认识，并可能为第三极群众运动的操作预警系统的实施奠定基础。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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Rainfall induced mass-movements in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau: insights on temporal and spatial triggering patterns

The Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP) is highly affected by rainfall-induced mass-movements (i.e., landslides, debris flows, rock falls) due to its geomorphological and climatic characteristics and anthropogenic activities. However, understanding these events and their triggering characteristics remains limited due to scarce hazard inventories and rain gauge measurements. Using a well-documented dataset of mass-movements (2001–2022) and satellite rainfall estimates, this study comprehensively analyzes the temporal and spatial patterns of the events and their triggers. Results confirm rainfall as the dominant factor, accounting for most fatalities and damages, with antecedent rainfall on the day of occurrence and 7 days prior playing a key role in triggering. Empirical rainfall thresholds at different non-exceedance probabilities, calculated for the first time in QTP, exhibit high parameter robustness and detection capacity. A new methodological approach to evaluate the temporal evolution of the triggering rainfall thresholds reveals a pronounced decreasing trend over the last decade, indicating that the QTP landscape has been experiencing more favorable triggering conditions for mass-movements, particularly under prolonged rainfall. Spatial variations in rainfall triggering conditions were found in several environmental subregions, demonstrating the adaptation of the landscape to different predisposing conditions, with lower-frequency areas showing lower thresholds. This work advances the knowledge of rainfall-induced mass-movements in this peculiar high-mountain area and may lay the foundation for the implementation of operational warning systems for mass-movements in the Third Pole.

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来源期刊

Bulletin of Engineering Geology and the Environment 工程技术-地球科学综合

CiteScore

7.10

自引率

11.90%

发文量

445

审稿时长

4.1 months

期刊介绍： Engineering geology is defined in the statutes of the IAEG as the science devoted to the investigation, study and solution of engineering and environmental problems which may arise as the result of the interaction between geology and the works or activities of man, as well as of the prediction of and development of measures for the prevention or remediation of geological hazards. Engineering geology embraces: • the applications/implications of the geomorphology, structural geology, and hydrogeological conditions of geological formations; • the characterisation of the mineralogical, physico-geomechanical, chemical and hydraulic properties of all earth materials involved in construction, resource recovery and environmental change; • the assessment of the mechanical and hydrological behaviour of soil and rock masses; • the prediction of changes to the above properties with time; • the determination of the parameters to be considered in the stability analysis of engineering works and earth masses.