Development of a Framework for Assessment of Urban Growth Dynamics in Indian Metropolitan City: A Multi-Scale Analysis

In developing nations, urban expansion is driven by industrialization, economic growth, and rural-to-urban migration. This study posits that urban growth is a complex phenomenon. The research employs spatial metrics to analyze urban expansion patterns in Delhi. Land cover and urban dynamics were evaluated using multi-temporal remote sensing and GHSL data from 1975 to 2020. Data analysis occurred at Landscape, Class, and Ring Buffer Zone levels. Findings reveal built-up areas increased by approximately 3.5% annually, while agricultural land and forest cover declined by 2.5% and 1.8%, respectively. The results underscore a nuanced interaction between urban expansion and land use types, highlighting agricultural conversion and non-agricultural shifts. Utilizing spatial metrics such as Shannon entropy, the study assesses urban density and growth, indicating concentrated development within 15 km of the city center. This study integrates scenario-based modeling and socio-economic indicators to assess future urban growth trajectories and their implications across Delhi NCR respectively. The findings reveal spatial disparities and socio-economic drivers of expansion, highlighting the need for equitable, sustainable urban policy interventions. This research contributes to the understanding of urbanization's ecological and social impacts, providing essential insights for sustainable urban planning in fast-growing cities.