北太平洋西部热带气旋降雨的区域变化

IF 4 1区地球科学 Q1 GEOGRAPHY, PHYSICAL

Global and Planetary Change Pub Date : 2025-09-22 DOI:10.1016/j.gloplacha.2025.105094

Aifang Chen , Yuxin Li , Hao Huang , Cesar Azorin-Molina , Mengqian Lu , Hui-Wen Lai , Penghan Chen , Hong Wang , Junguo Liu

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引用次数: 0

摘要

西北太平洋的热带气旋（tc）是全球最活跃的热带气旋，其降雨威胁着从海洋到沿海地区的生命、基础设施和自然生态系统。然而，由于高温持续时间和降雨率的同步变化，高温降雨的变化模式和驱动机制仍不清楚。结果表明，1979-2020年，20°N南侧（减少）和北侧（增加）的WNP TC降水总体呈减少趋势。在63%的WNP中，TC持续时间主导着TC降雨变化，主要发生在海洋地区，并与TC路径向极地迁移有关。而在西海其他地区，特别是北部沿海地区，TC降雨率主导着TC降雨的变化，并与垂直速度的变化密切相关。我们的研究结果揭示了从南到北TC降雨的不同变化，并系统地探索了从海洋到沿海的不同控制因素，表明北部沿海地区的区域TC风险正在上升。

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Regional changes of tropical cyclone rainfall in the western North Pacific

Tropical cyclones (TCs) in the Western North Pacific (WNP) are the most active globally, and their rainfall threatens lives, infrastructure, and natural ecosystems from oceanic to coastal regions. However, the changing patterns of TC rainfall and the driving mechanisms due to concurrent changes in TC duration and rain rate remain unknown. Here, we find an overall decreasing trend in WNP TC rainfall and contrasting changes between the south (decreases) and north (increases) of 20°N for 1979–2020. The TC duration dominates TC rainfall changes in 63 % of the WNP, mostly occurring in oceanic areas and associated with the poleward migration of TC tracks. In contrast, the TC rain rate dominates TC rainfall changes in the rest of the WNP, especially in northern coastal areas that are closely related to the changes in vertical velocity. Our findings reveal divergent changes in TC rainfall from south to north and systematically explore different controls from ocean to coastal, suggesting escalating regional TC risks in the northern coastal areas.

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来源期刊

Global and Planetary Change 地学天文-地球科学综合

CiteScore

7.40

自引率

10.30%

发文量

226

审稿时长

63 days

期刊介绍： The objective of the journal Global and Planetary Change is to provide a multi-disciplinary overview of the processes taking place in the Earth System and involved in planetary change over time. The journal focuses on records of the past and current state of the earth system, and future scenarios , and their link to global environmental change. Regional or process-oriented studies are welcome if they discuss global implications. Topics include, but are not limited to, changes in the dynamics and composition of the atmosphere, oceans and cryosphere, as well as climate change, sea level variation, observations/modelling of Earth processes from deep to (near-)surface and their coupling, global ecology, biogeography and the resilience/thresholds in ecosystems. Key criteria for the consideration of manuscripts are (a) the relevance for the global scientific community and/or (b) the wider implications for global scale problems, preferably combined with (c) having a significance beyond a single discipline. A clear focus on key processes associated with planetary scale change is strongly encouraged. Manuscripts can be submitted as either research contributions or as a review article. Every effort should be made towards the presentation of research outcomes in an understandable way for a broad readership.