Environmental implications and influencing mechanisms of urban ride-hailing services: A systematic perspective

Ride-hailing services have attracted considerable academic interest due to their environmental implications in urban contexts. However, comprehensive long-term analyses examining how ride-hailing contributes to sustainable transportation systems and subsequently shapes carbon emissions remain underdeveloped. This study develops an urban energy system optimization model to evaluate ride-hailing’s impacts on transport-related emissions, distinguished by its endogenous representation of both modal and technological competition, as well as its scenario-based policy integration. Additionally, a decomposition model is introduced to systematically analyze the mechanisms through which ride-hailing influences emission trajectories. The findings demonstrate that ride-hailing’s environmental outcomes are contingent upon policy frameworks and user behavior patterns. In contexts characterized by vehicle electrification policies and shared mobility prevalence, ride-hailing exhibits potential for substantial emission mitigation. Among key determinants, energy intensity emerges as a persistent mitigating factor, while vehicle utilization intensity, technological structure dynamics, and travel demand growth exert upward pressure on carbon emissions.