基于BiLSTM-informer混合模型的实时网络推理增强光伏发电量预测

IF 5.9 Q2 ENERGY & FUELS
Kehinde Ridwan Kamil, Umar F. Khan, Ray E. Sheriff, Hafeez Ullah Amin
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引用次数: 0

摘要

为了确保光伏可再生能源电网的高效运行,必须解决电力系统固有的不确定性问题。一个高效的能源管理系统必须能够根据光伏发电系统发电量的适用和有效的实时预测来优先分配能源。本研究提出了一种新的BiLSTM-Informer混合模型,该模型通过解决无法捕获非线性时间依赖性和缺乏动态特征权重的问题,在预测多步光伏输出方面优于基准机器和深度学习方法。一个39.2 kWp的光伏系统作为案例研究,结合了特定地点的天气参数。该模型集成了傅里叶变换、循环编码和自回归特征优化,以增强模式识别和短期可变性。该方法的平均绝对误差(MAE)为1.22 kWh,均方根误差(RMSE)为2.21 kWh,决定系数(R2)为0.952。这反映了在线预测准确度提高了20.1%。与之前的研究不同,这项工作使用Orender上的Streamlit接口集成了实时web推理,从而验证了模型在实时部署下的鲁棒性。该模型在多个预测(1小时到每月)范围内的预测精度在89%到97.3%之间,并且减少了计算开销。这些结果使BiLSTM-Informer成为实时光伏预测和智能电网管理的新基准。数据和预训练模型可在专用的GitHub存储库中获得:https://github.com/kamilkenny/EDA和推论模型链接是:https://kamil-deployment-of-edgehill-durning.onrender.com/。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。

Real-time web inference of a BiLSTM-informer hybrid model for enhanced photovoltaic power output forecasting

Real-time web inference of a BiLSTM-informer hybrid model for enhanced photovoltaic power output forecasting
To ensure an efficient Photovoltaic (PV) renewable energy grid, it is essential to address the uncertainty inherent in power systems. An efficient energy management system must be capable of prioritising energy distribution based on an applicable and effective real-time forecasting of the generation output of the PV system. This study proposes a novel BiLSTM-Informer hybrid model that outperforms benchmarked machine and deep learning approaches in forecasting multi-step PV output by addressing their inability to capture non-linear temporal dependencies and lack of dynamic features weighting. A 39.2 kWp PV system serves as a case study, incorporating location-specific weather parameters. The proposed model integrates Fourier transformation, cyclic encoding, and autoregressive feature optimization to enhance pattern recognition and short-term variability. It achieved superior accuracy, with a mean absolute error (MAE) of 1.22 kWh, a root means square error (RMSE) of 2.21 kWh, and a coefficient of determination (R2) of 0.952. This reflects a 20.1 % increase in online forecasting accuracy. Unlike previous studies, this work integrates real-time web inferencing using a Streamlit interface on Orender, thereby validating the model’s robustness under live deployment. The model demonstrated forecasting accuracy ranging from 89 % to 97.3 % across multiple forecasting (1-hour to monthly) horizons with reduced computational overhead. These results position the BiLSTM-Informer as a novel benchmark for real-time PV forecasting and intelligent power grid management. The data and pre-trained models are available at the dedicated GitHub repository: https://github.com/kamilkenny/EDA and the Inferenced Model link is: https://kamil-deployment-of-edgehill-durning.onrender.com/.
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来源期刊
Renewable Energy Focus
Renewable Energy Focus Renewable Energy, Sustainability and the Environment
CiteScore
7.10
自引率
8.30%
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0
审稿时长
48 days
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