Does flood risk matter in shaping climate gentrification? Evidence from Brisbane (2006–2021)

Intensified climate change has placed coastal and flood-prone urban environments at greater risk, triggering the phenomenon of “climate gentrification.” This study uses Brisbane, Australia as a case study to explore how a major flood event reshapes urban socioeconomic structures. Using longitudinal data (2006–2021) and a “dual-environment” analytical framework, we examine how the 2011 flood, acting as a “temporal turning point,” interacted with built and natural environments to drive gentrification. Our results reveal a three-stage, non-linear process: (1) a pre-flood, “risk-ignoring” phase driven by classic economic amenities; (2) a post-flood, “risk-averse” phase marked by a shift toward safer, peripheral areas; and (3) a later “resilience-driven” phase characterized by a return to the urban core, focused on “greening” and newly protected areas. Notably, the role of factors like housing diversity underwent a reversal, initially attracting the middle class but amplifying vulnerability post-disaster. Furthermore, post-disaster resilience investments created a “safety premium,” accelerating gentrification in retrofitted areas. These findings highlight the need for phased and adaptive policies that balance safety and equity. We recommend strategies like differentiated zoning, anti-displacement tools, and community-centric resilience design, tailored to each stage of a city's recovery. This study concludes that climate gentrification constitutes a redistribution of not only spatial but also social risks, offering critical implications for inclusive adaptation planning in flood-prone cities.