Potential Linkage Between Zebra Mussel Establishment, Cyanobacterial Community Composition, and Microcystin Levels in United States Lakes.

Zebra mussel invasion of North American lakes during the last century may play an important role in the occurrence of toxic cyanobacterial blooms. However, empirical evidence quantifying their influence on cyanobacterial community dynamics at broad spatial scales remains limited. Here, we analyzed data from the U.S. EPA National Lakes Assessment (>1000 lakes) to examine potential linkages among zebra mussels, cyanobacterial community composition, and cyanotoxin levels. The analysis results showed significant differences in cyanobacterial communities between lakes located in areas with and without established zebra mussel populations. The lakes with established zebra mussels exhibited significantly higher microcystin levels and cyanobacterial abundance, but lower phosphorus concentrations. Structural equation modeling was used to confirm and estimate the effect of zebra mussels on microcystin concentrations via different pathways. The results suggest three potential pathways whereby zebra mussels influence microcystin production: (1) altering phosphorus concentration; (2) increasing cyanobacterial abundance; and (3) shifting cyanobacteria community structure. The total effect of zebra mussel establishment resulted in an overall 1.40-fold net increase in microcystin level, which presumably resulted from three contributing factors: (1) a 1.06-fold increase through an increased cyanobacterial abundance; (2) a 1.53-fold increase through a selective force, resulting in increased cyanobacteria toxicity; and (3) a 0.86-fold decrease in microcystin level through total phosphorus decrease. The study highlights the potential role of zebra mussel invasion in altering cyanobacterial composition and influencing microcystin levels in U.S. lakes.