重新定义选秀权的价值在国家橄榄球联盟。

IF 2.6 Q2 SPORT SCIENCES
Frontiers in Sports and Active Living Pub Date : 2025-09-10 eCollection Date: 2025-01-01 DOI:10.3389/fspor.2025.1628223
Bryce Hadley, Jun Woo Kim, Marshall Magnusen, Kyoung Tae Kim
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引用次数: 0

摘要

美国国家橄榄球联盟(NFL)选秀在确定球队组成和增强联盟内部竞争平衡方面起着至关重要的作用。本研究考察了NFL选秀权的估值动态,对比了传统的估值范式,如吉米·约翰逊的选秀权价值图(PVC),以估计选秀权的内在价值。利用加权近似值(wAV),比赛场次(GP)和赛季开始(ST)等指标,我们得出在传统的PVC中,后期选秀权可能被低估。我们的回归结果表明,在第一轮的最终选择持有价值接近56%的第一个选择的价值,与PVC的20%形成鲜明对比。我们的改进模型表明,一个pick 200的价值大约是PVC项目的30倍。我们将特定回合的“交易升级”虚拟变量整合到玩家层面的回归模型中,以测试交易升级选择是否会产生更好的结果。结果显示,早期回合的交易,特别是在第一轮,与玩家表现显著下降有关,表明过度自信导致效率低下。相比之下,第4轮的交易显示出适度的积极影响,而其他回合则没有一致的优势。这些发现表明,球队可能从积累后期选秀权中获益更多,而不是在早期积极交易。本文强调了NFL球队整合数据驱动模型以进行明智的选秀决策的必要性,从而加深了对NFL选秀估值的见解。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Redefining the draft pick valuation in the National Football League.

The National Football League (NFL) Draft plays a critical role in determining team compositions and enhancing the competitive balance within the league. This study examines the valuation dynamics of NFL Draft picks, contrasting traditional valuation paradigms like Jimmy Johnson's Pick Value Chart (PVC) to estimate the intrinsic value of draft selections. Utilizing metrics such as weighted approximate value (wAV), games played (GP), and seasons started (ST), we derived that late-round draft picks might be undervalued in the conventional PVC. Our regression results indicated that the final pick in the first round holds a value closer to 56% of the first pick's worth, contrasting sharply with PVC's 20%. Our refined model suggested that the value of a pick 200 is about 30 times more than what PVC projects. We incorporate round-specific "Traded Up" dummy variables into our player-level regression models to test whether trade-up selections yield better outcomes. Results reveal that early round trade-ups, particularly in Round 1, are associated with significantly lower player performance, suggesting inefficiencies driven by overconfidence. In contrast, trade-ups in Round 4 show a modest positive effect, while other rounds yield no consistent advantage. These findings indicate that teams may benefit more from accumulating late-round picks than from aggressively trading up early. This paper accentuates the need for NFL teams to integrate data-driven models for informed draft decisions, thereby deepening insights into NFL draft valuation.

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来源期刊
CiteScore
2.60
自引率
7.40%
发文量
459
审稿时长
15 weeks
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