气候变化预计将扩大巴布亚新几内亚疟疾传播范围和面临风险的人口

IF 3.8 2区 医学 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
Geohealth Pub Date : 2025-09-26 DOI:10.1029/2025GH001541
S. Karl, E. B. Skinner, S. McEwen, J. Keven, J. Kisomb, L. J. Robinson, M. Laman
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引用次数: 0

摘要

气温升高正在扩大疟疾向更高海拔地区传播的可能性,这对疟疾控制规划具有重要意义。在巴布亚新几内亚(PNG),疟疾广泛分布于低地地区,但很少在海拔1600米以上传播。该研究利用卫星获得的温度数据和气候模型,评估了1960年至2019年巴布亚新几内亚疟疾传播适宜性的变化,并预测了到2040年的变化。我们使用温度相关的基本繁殖数(R0)来识别地理适宜性的变化,估计处于危险中的种群,并评估干预措施的有效性。1960年至2019年期间,疟疾温度适宜范围发生了微妙变化,生活在适宜地区的人口比例从58%增加到61%(相当于增加了249,125人)。在保守的气候变化模型下,这一比例预计到2040年将增加到74%(相当于增加2,802,709人)。在R0 <; 0.3的地区,干预措施对疟疾发病率的影响更大,减轻了气候变化的当前和未来影响。然而,到2040年,需要获得疟疾控制的人数预计将翻一番,达到1340万,其中280万归因于气候变化。受影响地区是人口稠密的高地地区,人口更容易受影响,发生流行病和临床疾病的可能性更大。这些发现强调了气候变化对巴布亚新几内亚消除疟疾的挑战,并强调了准确指导准备工作和预测额外资源需求的必要性。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。

Climate Change Is Expected to Expand Malaria Transmission Range and Population at Risk in Papua New Guinea

Climate Change Is Expected to Expand Malaria Transmission Range and Population at Risk in Papua New Guinea

Warming temperatures are expanding the potential for malaria transmission into higher altitudes, with important implications for malaria control planning. In Papua New Guinea (PNG), malaria is widespread in lowland areas but rarely transmitted above 1,600 m. This study assessed changes in malaria transmission suitability across PNG from 1960 to 2019 and projected shifts through 2040, using satellite-derived temperature data and climate models. We applied a temperature-dependent basic reproduction number (R0) to identify shifts in geographic suitability, estimate the population at risk, and evaluate the effectiveness of interventions. Malaria temperature suitability ranges have subtly changed between 1960 and 2019, with the proportion of people living in suitable areas increasing from 58% to 61% (equivalent to an additional 249,125 people). Under a conservative climate change model, this proportion is expected increase to 74% by 2040 (equivalent to an additional 2,802,709 people). Interventions had a larger impact on malaria incidence in areas with R0 < 0.3, mitigating the current and future impact of climate change. Nevertheless, the number of people requiring access to malaria control is expected to double by 2040, to 13.4 million with 2.8 million attributed to climate change alone. The impacted areas are densely populated highlands regions with a more susceptible population and an increased potential for epidemics and clinical disease. These findings underscore the challenges of climate change for malaria elimination in PNG and highlight the need to accurately guide preparedness and forecast the additional resource requirements.

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来源期刊
Geohealth
Geohealth Environmental Science-Pollution
CiteScore
6.80
自引率
6.20%
发文量
124
审稿时长
19 weeks
期刊介绍: GeoHealth will publish original research, reviews, policy discussions, and commentaries that cover the growing science on the interface among the Earth, atmospheric, oceans and environmental sciences, ecology, and the agricultural and health sciences. The journal will cover a wide variety of global and local issues including the impacts of climate change on human, agricultural, and ecosystem health, air and water pollution, environmental persistence of herbicides and pesticides, radiation and health, geomedicine, and the health effects of disasters. Many of these topics and others are of critical importance in the developing world and all require bringing together leading research across multiple disciplines.
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