Developing Integrated Cost Models for Fusion Power Plants

Systems models and associated cost analyses are widely used within the fusion community to analyse tokamak designs, from prototype and demonstrator machines to potential commercial fusion power plants. To ensure the design programmes of fusion prototype/demonstrator power plants deliver a cost optimised design (within existing uncertainty limitations) the use of integrated cost modelling during the design process is essential. This integration produces holistic solutions in which engineering design choices and changes are directly represented in the cost results, allowing alternative solutions to be tested technologically and financially in the same analysis and cost estimates to be directly aligned with each specific design solution. Using examples from the STEP (Spherical Tokamak for Energy Production) programme this paper shows how implementing such an approach allows an interrogation of the design through the lens of cost-effectiveness, enabling a systematic exploration of potential trade-offs between performance and cost, highlighting cost drivers and interrogating the design aspects underpinning them, and facilitating holistic comparisons between design options. Including cost analysis into early design decisions through integrated cost modelling will drive a cost-optimised design; this is vital in proving that fusion power plants can be an economically viable energy source. One top-level example of this approach is understanding the critical size drivers and therefore cost drivers of the design, such as the inboard radial build for the STEP design. This understanding enables optimisation of this parameter within the relevant margins required to ensure performance (within design uncertainties).