Recovery of forest land cover due to forest landscape restoration of the Bunduki gap in the Uluguru Nature Forest Reserve, Morogoro, Tanzania

Forest landscape restoration is important for the mitigation of climate change, conservation of biodiversity, protection of watersheds, provision of livelihoods, and enhancement of ecosystem services, thereby promoting environmental sustainability and human well-being on a global scale. This study investigates land cover changes in the Bunduki Gap, a region where eviction occurred in 2008 to establish biological connectivity between the northern and southern blocks of the Uluguru Nature Forest Reserve, in Morogoro, Tanzania. The research employs supervised image classification using the random forest algorithm on Google Earth Engine using high-resolution imagery from Quickbird 2005, Worldview 2011, and Pleiades 2017. It assesses classification accuracy, analyzes changes in land cover classes, tracks their persistence and trajectories, and examines spatial distribution for the periods 2005–2011 and 2011–2017. In 2005, the study area exhibited 1.74% forest, 16.01% bushland, 39.03% grassland, and 43.21% bare land. By 2011, these proportions shifted to 26.81%, 44.51%, 17.54%, and 11.14%, respectively. By 2017, the proportions further transformed to 51.80%, 31.79%, 13.41%, and 3.00%, respectively. The classification achieved a high overall accuracy of more than 90% for each respective year. The main result is the replacement of bare land, grassland, and bushland by forest land cover. The rate of this replacement differs temporally and spatially across the gap. The observed land cover changes were primarily driven by the cessation of farming activities, natural forest regeneration, and the influence of local conservation efforts following the eviction. The transition to forest cover has significant socioecological implications, including improved biodiversity connectivity, enhanced ecosystem services such as water regulation and carbon sequestration, and the potential for alternative livelihoods like ecotourism. The study recommends continuous monitoring and research to assess the emerging land cover’s composition and its similarity to the reserve’s northern and southern blocks.