Estimating the potential distribution in the invasive chrysanthemum lace bug, Corythucha marmorata (Hemiptera: Tingidae), in northern Japan based on vegetation and meteorological factors

The chrysanthemum lace bug, Corythucha marmorata (Uhler) (Hemiptera: Tingidae), is an invasive agricultural pest. A logistic regression model to estimate the distribution of C. marmorata was developed based on both vegetation and meteorological information, and the potential distribution area was mapped for effective pest management in northern Honshu Island, Japan. Deciduous broadleaf forests and urban areas had significant negative and positive effects, respectively, and no interaction was statistically significant between vegetation and meteorological information on the probability of presence. Comparing the degree of influence between variables indicated that their distribution was limited mainly by vegetation rather than the average daily minimum temperatures in January, probably related to the environment for establishing the major host plant, tall goldenrod Solidago altissima L. (Asterales: Asteraceae). The accuracy of the prediction model was 65.2% and indicated that the surveyed area included both established and progressive invasion areas. The accuracy dramatically improved in the established area (94.4%) but declined in the progressing area (34.3%). The percentage of data correctly predicted as present was 98.8%, whereas the specificity of the percentage of absent data correctly predicted as absent was 11.3%. Based on the valuation index results, our model could estimate the presence of C. marmorata with high reliability.