I. Thurnherr, R. Cui, P. Velasquez, H. Wernli, C. Schär
{"title":"全球变暖3°C对欧洲冰雹的影响","authors":"I. Thurnherr, R. Cui, P. Velasquez, H. Wernli, C. Schär","doi":"10.1029/2025GL114811","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p>Hail severely impacts humans, crops, and infrastructure. Quantifying future hail trends is extremely challenging due to the complex dynamic, thermodynamic, and microphysical processes behind severe convective storms. Here, we combine a km-scale convection-permitting regional climate model and an online hail diagnostic to quantitatively assess changes in hail frequency in Europe imposed by a <span></span><math>\n <semantics>\n <mrow>\n <mn>3</mn>\n <mo>°</mo>\n </mrow>\n <annotation> $3{}^{\\circ}$</annotation>\n </semantics></math>C global warming level. Results show increases in summer hail frequency in northeastern Europe and decreases to the southwest for intense and severe hail days, related to changes in low-tropospheric water vapor content, convective available potential energy and convective inhibition. Small hail days generally decline across continental Europe, due to increased melting of hailstones with higher melting level height. The physical-based simulation approach captures convection and hail processes consistently, providing a solid basis for assessing the socioeconomic implications of hail and its trends with global warming.</p>","PeriodicalId":12523,"journal":{"name":"Geophysical Research Letters","volume":"52 18","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.6000,"publicationDate":"2025-09-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2025GL114811","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"The Effect of 3\\n \\n \\n °\\n \\n ${}^{\\\\circ}$\\n C Global Warming on Hail Over Europe\",\"authors\":\"I. Thurnherr, R. Cui, P. Velasquez, H. Wernli, C. Schär\",\"doi\":\"10.1029/2025GL114811\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<p>Hail severely impacts humans, crops, and infrastructure. Quantifying future hail trends is extremely challenging due to the complex dynamic, thermodynamic, and microphysical processes behind severe convective storms. Here, we combine a km-scale convection-permitting regional climate model and an online hail diagnostic to quantitatively assess changes in hail frequency in Europe imposed by a <span></span><math>\\n <semantics>\\n <mrow>\\n <mn>3</mn>\\n <mo>°</mo>\\n </mrow>\\n <annotation> $3{}^{\\\\circ}$</annotation>\\n </semantics></math>C global warming level. Results show increases in summer hail frequency in northeastern Europe and decreases to the southwest for intense and severe hail days, related to changes in low-tropospheric water vapor content, convective available potential energy and convective inhibition. Small hail days generally decline across continental Europe, due to increased melting of hailstones with higher melting level height. The physical-based simulation approach captures convection and hail processes consistently, providing a solid basis for assessing the socioeconomic implications of hail and its trends with global warming.</p>\",\"PeriodicalId\":12523,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Geophysical Research Letters\",\"volume\":\"52 18\",\"pages\":\"\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":4.6000,\"publicationDate\":\"2025-09-26\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2025GL114811\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Geophysical Research Letters\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"89\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2025GL114811\",\"RegionNum\":1,\"RegionCategory\":\"地球科学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q1\",\"JCRName\":\"GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Geophysical Research Letters","FirstCategoryId":"89","ListUrlMain":"https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2025GL114811","RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY","Score":null,"Total":0}
The Effect of 3
°
${}^{\circ}$
C Global Warming on Hail Over Europe
Hail severely impacts humans, crops, and infrastructure. Quantifying future hail trends is extremely challenging due to the complex dynamic, thermodynamic, and microphysical processes behind severe convective storms. Here, we combine a km-scale convection-permitting regional climate model and an online hail diagnostic to quantitatively assess changes in hail frequency in Europe imposed by a C global warming level. Results show increases in summer hail frequency in northeastern Europe and decreases to the southwest for intense and severe hail days, related to changes in low-tropospheric water vapor content, convective available potential energy and convective inhibition. Small hail days generally decline across continental Europe, due to increased melting of hailstones with higher melting level height. The physical-based simulation approach captures convection and hail processes consistently, providing a solid basis for assessing the socioeconomic implications of hail and its trends with global warming.
期刊介绍：
Geophysical Research Letters (GRL) publishes high-impact, innovative, and timely research on major scientific advances in all the major geoscience disciplines. Papers are communications-length articles and should have broad and immediate implications in their discipline or across the geosciences. GRLmaintains the fastest turn-around of all high-impact publications in the geosciences and works closely with authors to ensure broad visibility of top papers.
求助内容：
应助结果提醒方式：
京公网安备 11010802042870号
