白纹伊蚊幼虫发育率的数学模型研究。

IF 1.7 3区 农林科学 Q2 ENTOMOLOGY
María Alejandra Gallego, Darío Vezzani, María Verónica Simoy
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引用次数: 0

摘要

洪水蚊子白纹伊蚊适应不同地区的热条件,造成人口爆炸,对畜牧业和公共卫生造成问题,包括西部马脑炎的爆发。2019年10月至2021年6月期间,在坦迪尔临时池中监测了它们的幼虫发育情况,记录了35起事件。分别计算幼虫发育时间和日平均温度。这些数据被拟合到几个与温度相关的昆虫文献非线性模型中,这些模型先前为伊蚊设定了上、下热发育阈值。分别在7.62°C和33°C。提出了一种基于文献模型中存在的因子组合的新模型来估计幼虫发育速率作为温度的函数。采用均方根误差(RMSE)和一致性指数(d)对模型进行验证。此外,还计算了模型估计的周期长度与实地记录的周期长度之间差异的百分比频率分布。最佳模型具有最高的一致性指数(0.9)、最低的RMSE(0.01)和最高的估计值与观测值之间的一致性(83%)。该模型可作为Ae的预测工具。在未来南美西部马脑炎暴发的背景下,白头海蝇的丰度将达到峰值。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Development Rate of the Larvae of the Mosquito Aedes albifasciatus: A Mathematical Model as Decision Tool.

The flood mosquito Aedes albifasciatus adapts to the thermal conditions of different regions and presents demographic explosions, causing problems for livestock farming and public health, including outbreaks of western equine encephalitis. Between October 2019 and June 2021, their larval development was monitored in Tandil temporary pools, recording 35 events. For each one, the larval development time and the average daily mean temperatures were calculated. The data were fitted to several temperature-dependent bibliography nonlinear models for insects, previously setting the lower and upper thermal development thresholds (for Ae. albifasciatus in the studied region) at 7.62°C and 33°C, respectively. A new model, based on combinations of factors present in bibliography models, is proposed to estimate the larval development rate as a function of temperature. The models were validated using the root mean square error (RMSE) and concordance index (d). In addition, the distribution of percentage frequencies of the difference between the length of the period estimated by the models and that recorded in the field was calculated. The best model had the highest agreement index (0.9), the lowest RMSE (0.01), and the highest agreement between the estimated and observed development rate (83%). This model could be useful as a pre-diction tool of Ae. albifasciatus abundance peaks in the context of future outbreaks of western equine encephalitis in South America.

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来源期刊
Neotropical Entomology
Neotropical Entomology 生物-昆虫学
CiteScore
3.30
自引率
5.60%
发文量
69
审稿时长
6-12 weeks
期刊介绍: Neotropical Entomology is a bimonthly journal, edited by the Sociedade Entomológica do Brasil (Entomological Society of Brazil) that publishes original articles produced by Brazilian and international experts in several subspecialties of entomology. These include bionomics, systematics, morphology, physiology, behavior, ecology, biological control, crop protection and acarology.
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