先天性心脏病的全球生存趋势：来自全球疾病负担分析的时间、区域和性别差异

IF 3.2 2区医学 Q2 CARDIAC & CARDIOVASCULAR SYSTEMS

International journal of cardiology Pub Date : 2025-09-22 DOI:10.1016/j.ijcard.2025.133925

Yucan Deng , Runfang Tian , Jinfeng Zhao , Li Liu , Panpan Sun , Zhiguang Ping

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引用次数: 0

摘要

背景：先前关于先天性心脏病（CHD）的全球疾病负担（GBD）研究强调发病率和死亡率趋势，缺乏可靠的生存模式评估。至关重要的是，利用小组数据构建跨越时间段、地区和出生时分配性别（短性别）的生存分析的定量研究仍然很少。目的：将缩短生命表法应用于GBD 2021多期数据，动态评估不同地区和性别的冠心病生存差异，为制定精准防控策略提供重要依据。方法：对GBD 2021数据库2005年、2010年、2015年和2020年的数据进行分析。使用Kaplan-Meier估计（Log-rank检验）和Cox生存分析评估不同年龄、地区和性别冠心病患者的生存差异。此外，采用Blinder-Oaxaca分解法分析不同性别的生存时间差异。结果：总生存率从23.2% %（2005年）显著提高到26.9% %（2020年）（P ）。结论：虽然冠心病患者的全球生存率正在改善，但明显的地区和性别差异仍然存在，在高SDI地区和女性患者中观察到更高的生存率。随着SDI水平的上升，生存时间的性别差距正在缩小。

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Global survival trends in congenital heart disease: Temporal, regional, and sex disparities from global burden of disease analyses

Background

Prior Global Burden of Disease (GBD) studies on congenital heart disease (CHD) emphasized incidence and mortality trends, lacking robust survival pattern assessments. Crucially, quantitative studies that leverage panel data to construct survival analyses across time periods, regions, and sexes assigned at birth (short sexes) remain scarce.

Objective

To dynamically assess CHD survival disparities across regions and sexes by applying the abbreviated life table method to multi-period data of GBD 2021, providing a critical foundation for precision prevention and control strategies.

Methods

Data from the GBD 2021 database for the years 2005, 2010, 2015, and 2020 were analyzed. Survival differences among CHD patients across various years, regions, and sexes were assessed using Kaplan-Meier estimates (Log-rank test) and Cox survival analysis. Additionally, the Blinder-Oaxaca decomposition method was employed to analyze survival time disparities by sex.

Results

Overall survival significantly improved from 23.2 % (2005) to 26.9 % (2020) (P < 0.01), especially in high Socio-Demographic Index (SDI) regions and females. The sex survival gap narrowed with rising SDI levels and over time: declining from 11.54 years (2005) to 8.60 years (2020) in low SDI areas, while reaching 1.12 years (95 %CI: 0.77–1.47) in high SDI areas by 2020.

Conclusions

While global survival rates for CHD patients are improving, marked regional and sex disparities persist, with higher rates observed in high SDI regions and among female patients. The sex gap in survival time is narrowing as SDI levels rise.

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来源期刊

International journal of cardiology 医学-心血管系统

CiteScore

6.80

自引率

5.70%

发文量

758

审稿时长

44 days

期刊介绍： The International Journal of Cardiology is devoted to cardiology in the broadest sense. Both basic research and clinical papers can be submitted. The journal serves the interest of both practicing clinicians and researchers. In addition to original papers, we are launching a range of new manuscript types, including Consensus and Position Papers, Systematic Reviews, Meta-analyses, and Short communications. Case reports are no longer acceptable. Controversial techniques, issues on health policy and social medicine are discussed and serve as useful tools for encouraging debate.