Health inequality in the disease burden of non-communicable diseases among the elderly from 1990 to 2021, and projections to 2050: a systematic analysis of global burden of disease study.

Backgrounds: The global burden of non-communicable diseases (NCDs) among the elderly is rising, yet health inequalities persist across age, sex, and socio-demographic index (SDI) levels.

Objectives: This study aims to assess global, regional, and national disparities in disease burdens of NCDs among the elderly from 1990 to 2021, with projections up to 2050.

Methods: Using data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021, we analyzed four key metrics of incidence, prevalence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALY) for 10 NCDs across age, sex, and SDI levels. Temporal trends were quantified using annual percentage change (AAPC), and projections for NCDs burden up to 2050 were also performed under the assumption of stable socioeconomic conditions.

Results: In 2021, the global age-standardized rates for incidence (ASIR), prevalence (ASPR), mortality (ASMR), and DALY (ASDR) were 182,092.67, 99,905.95, 3,360.06, and 75,380.44 per 100,000 individuals among the elderly population, respectively. From 1990 to 2021, there was a slight increase in the ASPR of NCDs by 0.01%, whereas ASIR, ASMR, and ASDR showed declines with rates of -0.04%, -0.99%, and - 0.77%, respectively. Regions with lower SDI exhibited higher disease burden of NCDs, especially in terms of mortality and disability. Furthermore, the predictions for the NCDs burden among the elderly from 2022 to 2050 indicated an incremental trend in prevalence.

Conclusions: Persistent disparities in the NCDs burdens highlight the need for equitable healthcare strategies. Healthcare providers are encouraged to provide targeted interventions for specific age groups and address differences in healthcare resource allocation among the elderly across different SDI regions.