东南亚两次空前干旱的故事:物理驱动因素和迫在眉睫的未来风险

IF 8.2 1区 地球科学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
Earths Future Pub Date : 2025-08-07 DOI:10.1029/2025EF005971
Shuping Ma, Xiao Peng, Xinyue Liu, Zhongwang Wei, Zhixiao Niu, Wenpeng Zhao, Ming Pan, Xiaogang He
{"title":"东南亚两次空前干旱的故事:物理驱动因素和迫在眉睫的未来风险","authors":"Shuping Ma,&nbsp;Xiao Peng,&nbsp;Xinyue Liu,&nbsp;Zhongwang Wei,&nbsp;Zhixiao Niu,&nbsp;Wenpeng Zhao,&nbsp;Ming Pan,&nbsp;Xiaogang He","doi":"10.1029/2025EF005971","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p>Conventional wisdom suggests that tropical droughts in Southeast Asia are closely linked to natural climate variability like El Niño. However, the extreme 2014 drought occurred independently of El Niño, suggesting other dynamic forcings at play. Here we use moisture budget analysis, moisture tracking, and physics-informed joint probability modeling to disentangle the interplay between dynamic and thermodynamic drivers behind this unprecedented drought and to assess future drought risks under climate change. We find that the 2014 drought primarily resulted from air subsidence due to anticyclone-driven mid-troposphere divergence, leading to significant precipitation deficits, which are further intensified by reduced marine moisture inflow from the West Pacific. Incorporating the dynamic and thermodynamic drivers into our bivariate probabilistic analysis, we find that the likelihood of 2014-like droughts will increase by 25% and 43% under stabilized and business as usual pathways, respectively, by mid-century (2030–2064). Such increases in drought risk are dominated by climate-change-induced changes in dynamic processes, particularly reduced mid-troposphere vertical motion, where thermodynamic processes and the dependence structure between the two play a less significant role. However, significant inter-model inconsistence in attributing the relative importance of these factors highlights the challenges of using current climate models for robust risk assessment.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 8","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":8.2000,"publicationDate":"2025-08-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2025EF005971","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"A Tale of Two Unprecedented Droughts in Southeast Asia: Physical Drivers and Impending Future Risks\",\"authors\":\"Shuping Ma,&nbsp;Xiao Peng,&nbsp;Xinyue Liu,&nbsp;Zhongwang Wei,&nbsp;Zhixiao Niu,&nbsp;Wenpeng Zhao,&nbsp;Ming Pan,&nbsp;Xiaogang He\",\"doi\":\"10.1029/2025EF005971\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<p>Conventional wisdom suggests that tropical droughts in Southeast Asia are closely linked to natural climate variability like El Niño. However, the extreme 2014 drought occurred independently of El Niño, suggesting other dynamic forcings at play. Here we use moisture budget analysis, moisture tracking, and physics-informed joint probability modeling to disentangle the interplay between dynamic and thermodynamic drivers behind this unprecedented drought and to assess future drought risks under climate change. We find that the 2014 drought primarily resulted from air subsidence due to anticyclone-driven mid-troposphere divergence, leading to significant precipitation deficits, which are further intensified by reduced marine moisture inflow from the West Pacific. Incorporating the dynamic and thermodynamic drivers into our bivariate probabilistic analysis, we find that the likelihood of 2014-like droughts will increase by 25% and 43% under stabilized and business as usual pathways, respectively, by mid-century (2030–2064). Such increases in drought risk are dominated by climate-change-induced changes in dynamic processes, particularly reduced mid-troposphere vertical motion, where thermodynamic processes and the dependence structure between the two play a less significant role. However, significant inter-model inconsistence in attributing the relative importance of these factors highlights the challenges of using current climate models for robust risk assessment.</p>\",\"PeriodicalId\":48748,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Earths Future\",\"volume\":\"13 8\",\"pages\":\"\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":8.2000,\"publicationDate\":\"2025-08-07\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2025EF005971\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Earths Future\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"89\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2025EF005971\",\"RegionNum\":1,\"RegionCategory\":\"地球科学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q1\",\"JCRName\":\"ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Earths Future","FirstCategoryId":"89","ListUrlMain":"https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2025EF005971","RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0

摘要

传统观点认为,东南亚的热带干旱与厄尔尼诺Niño等自然气候变化密切相关。然而,2014年的极端干旱与厄尔尼诺Niño无关,这表明其他动力力量也在起作用。在这里,我们使用水分预算分析、水分跟踪和物理信息联合概率模型来解开这场前所未有的干旱背后的动力和热力学驱动因素之间的相互作用,并评估气候变化下未来的干旱风险。研究发现,2014年的干旱主要是由反气旋驱动的对流层中辐散引起的大气沉降造成的,造成了明显的降水不足,而西太平洋海洋水汽流入的减少进一步加剧了降水不足。将动力和热力学驱动因素纳入我们的二元概率分析,我们发现,到本世纪中叶(2030-2064年),在稳定路径和一切正常路径下,发生2014年类似干旱的可能性将分别增加25%和43%。这种干旱风险的增加主要是由气候变化引起的动力过程的变化,特别是对流层中层垂直运动的减少,其中热力学过程和两者之间的依赖结构起不太重要的作用。然而,模式间在归因于这些因素的相对重要性方面存在显著的不一致,这突出了使用当前气候模式进行可靠风险评估的挑战。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。

A Tale of Two Unprecedented Droughts in Southeast Asia: Physical Drivers and Impending Future Risks

A Tale of Two Unprecedented Droughts in Southeast Asia: Physical Drivers and Impending Future Risks

A Tale of Two Unprecedented Droughts in Southeast Asia: Physical Drivers and Impending Future Risks

Conventional wisdom suggests that tropical droughts in Southeast Asia are closely linked to natural climate variability like El Niño. However, the extreme 2014 drought occurred independently of El Niño, suggesting other dynamic forcings at play. Here we use moisture budget analysis, moisture tracking, and physics-informed joint probability modeling to disentangle the interplay between dynamic and thermodynamic drivers behind this unprecedented drought and to assess future drought risks under climate change. We find that the 2014 drought primarily resulted from air subsidence due to anticyclone-driven mid-troposphere divergence, leading to significant precipitation deficits, which are further intensified by reduced marine moisture inflow from the West Pacific. Incorporating the dynamic and thermodynamic drivers into our bivariate probabilistic analysis, we find that the likelihood of 2014-like droughts will increase by 25% and 43% under stabilized and business as usual pathways, respectively, by mid-century (2030–2064). Such increases in drought risk are dominated by climate-change-induced changes in dynamic processes, particularly reduced mid-troposphere vertical motion, where thermodynamic processes and the dependence structure between the two play a less significant role. However, significant inter-model inconsistence in attributing the relative importance of these factors highlights the challenges of using current climate models for robust risk assessment.

求助全文
通过发布文献求助,成功后即可免费获取论文全文。 去求助
来源期刊
Earths Future
Earths Future ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCESGEOSCIENCES, MULTIDI-GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY
CiteScore
11.00
自引率
7.30%
发文量
260
审稿时长
16 weeks
期刊介绍: Earth’s Future: A transdisciplinary open access journal, Earth’s Future focuses on the state of the Earth and the prediction of the planet’s future. By publishing peer-reviewed articles as well as editorials, essays, reviews, and commentaries, this journal will be the preeminent scholarly resource on the Anthropocene. It will also help assess the risks and opportunities associated with environmental changes and challenges.
×
引用
GB/T 7714-2015
复制
MLA
复制
APA
复制
导出至
BibTeX EndNote RefMan NoteFirst NoteExpress
×
提示
您的信息不完整,为了账户安全,请先补充。
现在去补充
×
提示
您因"违规操作"
具体请查看互助需知
我知道了
×
提示
确定
请完成安全验证×
copy
已复制链接
快去分享给好友吧!
我知道了
右上角分享
点击右上角分享
0
联系我们:info@booksci.cn Book学术提供免费学术资源搜索服务,方便国内外学者检索中英文文献。致力于提供最便捷和优质的服务体验。 Copyright © 2023 布克学术 All rights reserved.
京ICP备2023020795号-1
ghs 京公网安备 11010802042870号
Book学术文献互助
Book学术文献互助群
群 号:604180095
Book学术官方微信