Jumping to Conclusions and Facial Emotion Recognition in First-Episode Psychosis: Longitudinal Insights from the Gap Follow-Up Study.

Objective: Psychotic disorders are heterogeneous in their clinical presentation and outcome. While early research focused on poor prognoses in schizophrenia, recent longitudinal studies tracking first-episode psychosis (FEP) have identified more favourable outcome trajectories. This study investigates the stability and predictive value of metacognitive and social cognitive impairments-Jumping to Conclusions (JTC) bias and Facial Emotion Recognition (FER) deficits-as intermediate phenotypes of psychosis over a 5-year follow-up period.

Method: A total of 134 FEP patients and 105 population-based controls from the GAP and EU-GEI follow-up study in London were reassessed after an average of 4.8 years. JTC was measured using the 60:40 Beads task, while FER was assessed through the Degraded Facial Affect Recognition (DFAR) task. Clinical, functional, and social outcomes-including hospital admissions, symptom severity, and employment status-were evaluated. Mixed models and regression modeling examined the stability of these cognitive traits and their association with long-term outcomes.

Results: JTC and FER impairments remain stable over time, supporting their classification as intermediate phenotypes. However, neither JTC nor FER was associated with clinical outcomes (hospitalization rates, symptom severity) or social functioning (employment, independent living, relationships). A weak correlation was found between global FER impairment and negative symptoms at follow-up, but no associations emerged with real-world functional measures. Additionally, while patients demonstrated greater impairments than controls, the differences were more quantitative than qualitative, aligning with the psychosis continuum hypothesis.

Conclusions: These findings demonstrate that JTC and FER are stable in people with psychosis and controls. Therefore, they may serve as important treatment targets for early intervention in psychosis. Future research should integrate the potential role of environmental factors as well as genetic influence to deepen our understanding of cognitive impairments in psychotic disorders.