Spatiotemporal analysis of the re-emerging foot and mouth disease outbreak in Central Java, Indonesia.

Background: Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is a highly contagious transboundary animal disease that severely impacts livestock health, productivity, and trade. After FMD was free for over 3 decades, Indonesia experienced a resurgence of the disease in May 2022, with Central Java among the affected regions. The outbreak exposed weaknesses in biosecurity, surveillance, and response mechanisms, necessitating a comprehensive analysis of the spread and control efforts.

Aim: This study aims to assess the spatiotemporal dynamics of the FMD outbreak in Central Java, evaluating the effectiveness of control measures, including vaccination, movement restrictions, and biosecurity enforcement, to inform future disease management strategies.

Methods: This study utilized Geographic Information System tools to analyze the spatial patterns of FMD cases using outbreak data from iSIKHNAS. Temporal trends were examined over a 35-week period to identify peak transmission periods. Data analysis was conducted using QGIS 3.34.12 and Microsoft Excel to track the spread and impact of the control interventions.

Results: The first FMD case in Central Java was reported in Boyolali Regency on May 8, 2022. The outbreak rapidly spread, affecting all regencies within 41 days. By the end of 2022, a total of 8,473 outbreaks involving 65,445 livestock were recorded. Spatial analysis revealed significant clusters of dairy and beef cattle linked to high animal trade activity. Temporal analysis showed rapid case escalation with peaks in weeks 5 and 11, followed by a decline after the intervention measures. Emergency vaccination commenced 7 weeks post-outbreak, contributing to case reduction but facing challenges in distribution and timely execution. The spatial relationship between cattle population density and FMD transmission risk at the subdistrict level, visualized through bivariate mapping.

Conclusion: The 2022 FMD outbreak in Central Java affected over 65,000 livestock, with cases peaking in week 11 before declining due to emergency vaccination and movement restrictions. Strengthened biosecurity measures and earlier interventions are critical for effective control. Future research should focus on spatial risk factors and evaluate intervention strategies to improve outbreak preparedness and response.