Assessment of land use land cover changes and urban heat island dynamics of Mumbai, India.

Urbanization serves as the predominant force driving changes in global land use and land cover (LULC), resulting in persistent or irreversible environmental degradation and climatic shifts. This study examines the impact of LULC in Mumbai on land surface temperature (LST) from 2003 to 2023 and the dynamics of urban heat islands (UHIs). Various indices such as the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), normalized difference water index (NDWI), and normalized difference built-up index (NDBI) were utilized to assess the spatial variability of LST across different land use/land cover classes. LULC classification was conducted using the random forest machine learning algorithm for the years 2003, 2013, and 2023. To fully understand the UHI effect, it is essential to consider an extended study area beyond the official administrative boundaries, particularly for rapidly growing cities like Mumbai that have expanded beyond these limits. The analysis revealed a consistent upward trend in LST over the study period: In 2003, LST ranged from 26.94 to 40.90 °C; by 2013, it increased to between 33.98 and 45.07 °C; and in 2023, it further rose to a range of 34.17 to 47.30 °C. This trend highlights the intensifying UHI effect associated with urban expansion and land cover changes. To accurately assess the influence of water bodies on UHI dynamics, a stack profile analysis was conducted. The findings revealed higher LST values outside the core city area, indicating the mitigating influence of water bodies on local temperature dynamics. This underscores the importance of conserving green and blue infrastructure to mitigate the adverse effects of urbanization on temperature regulation and climate resilience.