Solar Photovoltaic Development in West Africa Will Face Million-Ton Waste Challenges, and Off-Grid Systems Will Dominate.

Solar photovoltaic (PV), especially off-grid systems, is a low-hanging fruit option among various renewable energy technology choices to address universal energy access, energy security, and climate challenges for vulnerable regions like West Africa. West Africa dominates in the uptake of solar PV solutions, while little attention has been paid to the potential PV waste generation. In this study, we developed a technology-specific, prospective material flow analysis model to investigate material stocks and flows of both on-grid and off-grid solar PV systems for 15 West African countries up to 2050. We show that the cumulative solar PV waste generation ranges from 2.3 to 7.8 million tons by 2050 in West Africa under different scenarios, around 70% of which comes from off-grid PV systems. The potential secondary materials supply ranges from 213 to 704 kilotons, which have potential economic value amounting to 143-475 million dollars or material equivalent to produce 6-19 GW of solar PV capacity. These results call for urgent policy attention, technology development, and infrastructure investment for future PV waste management and highlight the significance of addressing off-grid PV waste in Africa.