{"title":"拥挤的空间，传染风险：比较大学成员和社区在户外音乐会后的COVID-19发病率，大韩民国，2022。","authors":"Jisun Sung, Jong-Hun Kim","doi":"10.3346/jkms.2025.40.e239","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Background: </strong>A university festival, including outdoor concerts, was held from May 2 to 4, 2022, following the relaxation of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) restrictions in Korea. This study aimed to assess its impact on COVID-19 cases among university members.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>We collected daily COVID-19 case data from university and local government websites and conducted a causal impact analysis using a Bayesian structural time series model.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>The analysis revealed a significant increase in cases following the event. From May 6 to 29, 2022, the university recorded an average of 5.8 daily cases (total: 138 cases). In the counterfactual scenario without the event, the estimated number of daily cases was 2.5 to 3.0 (total: 57.1 to 72.0 cases) based on three prediction models. The outdoor concerts were associated with an approximately twofold increase in COVID-19 cases among university members.</p><p><strong>Conclusion: </strong>Despite a declining trend in community cases, these findings underscore the potential risks of crowded outdoor gatherings in spreading COVID-19 and highlight the need for caution at such events.</p>","PeriodicalId":16249,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Korean Medical Science","volume":"40 37","pages":"e239"},"PeriodicalIF":2.3000,"publicationDate":"2025-09-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12453979/pdf/","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Crowded Spaces, Contagious Risks: Comparing COVID-19 Incidence After Outdoor Concerts Among University Members and the Community, Republic of Korea, 2022.\",\"authors\":\"Jisun Sung, Jong-Hun Kim\",\"doi\":\"10.3346/jkms.2025.40.e239\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<p><strong>Background: </strong>A university festival, including outdoor concerts, was held from May 2 to 4, 2022, following the relaxation of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) restrictions in Korea. This study aimed to assess its impact on COVID-19 cases among university members.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>We collected daily COVID-19 case data from university and local government websites and conducted a causal impact analysis using a Bayesian structural time series model.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>The analysis revealed a significant increase in cases following the event. From May 6 to 29, 2022, the university recorded an average of 5.8 daily cases (total: 138 cases). In the counterfactual scenario without the event, the estimated number of daily cases was 2.5 to 3.0 (total: 57.1 to 72.0 cases) based on three prediction models. The outdoor concerts were associated with an approximately twofold increase in COVID-19 cases among university members.</p><p><strong>Conclusion: </strong>Despite a declining trend in community cases, these findings underscore the potential risks of crowded outdoor gatherings in spreading COVID-19 and highlight the need for caution at such events.</p>\",\"PeriodicalId\":16249,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Journal of Korean Medical Science\",\"volume\":\"40 37\",\"pages\":\"e239\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":2.3000,\"publicationDate\":\"2025-09-22\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12453979/pdf/\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Journal of Korean Medical Science\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"3\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.3346/jkms.2025.40.e239\",\"RegionNum\":3,\"RegionCategory\":\"医学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q1\",\"JCRName\":\"MEDICINE, GENERAL & INTERNAL\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Journal of Korean Medical Science","FirstCategoryId":"3","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.3346/jkms.2025.40.e239","RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"MEDICINE, GENERAL & INTERNAL","Score":null,"Total":0}
Crowded Spaces, Contagious Risks: Comparing COVID-19 Incidence After Outdoor Concerts Among University Members and the Community, Republic of Korea, 2022.
Background: A university festival, including outdoor concerts, was held from May 2 to 4, 2022, following the relaxation of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) restrictions in Korea. This study aimed to assess its impact on COVID-19 cases among university members.
Methods: We collected daily COVID-19 case data from university and local government websites and conducted a causal impact analysis using a Bayesian structural time series model.
Results: The analysis revealed a significant increase in cases following the event. From May 6 to 29, 2022, the university recorded an average of 5.8 daily cases (total: 138 cases). In the counterfactual scenario without the event, the estimated number of daily cases was 2.5 to 3.0 (total: 57.1 to 72.0 cases) based on three prediction models. The outdoor concerts were associated with an approximately twofold increase in COVID-19 cases among university members.
Conclusion: Despite a declining trend in community cases, these findings underscore the potential risks of crowded outdoor gatherings in spreading COVID-19 and highlight the need for caution at such events.
期刊介绍：
The Journal of Korean Medical Science (JKMS) is an international, peer-reviewed Open Access journal of medicine published weekly in English. The Journal’s publisher is the Korean Academy of Medical Sciences (KAMS), Korean Medical Association (KMA). JKMS aims to publish evidence-based, scientific research articles from various disciplines of the medical sciences. The Journal welcomes articles of general interest to medical researchers especially when they contain original information. Articles on the clinical evaluation of drugs and other therapies, epidemiologic studies of the general population, studies on pathogenic organisms and toxic materials, and the toxicities and adverse effects of therapeutics are welcome.
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