Effects of demand and recycling on the when and where of lithium extraction

Achieving electric mobility targets is crucial for global decarbonization goals and the transition to electric vehicles depends on the availability of lithium-ion batteries, the preferred traction battery for electric vehicles. Demand and supply models for lithium, a critical energy material in batteries, largely ignore time, geography and mining dynamics when evaluating mineral sufficiency. We developed a resource dispatch model with data at the mineral deposit level and found that, if trends towards larger battery packs in electric vehicles continue, >85 new deposit openings may be needed by 2050. Moderating battery size and achieving robust battery recycling at global scales can substantially decrease new lithium deposit openings, with the very best case leading to just 15 openings by 2050. Ambitious recycling and recovery targets for lithium require global policy intervention, but will reduce supply concentration and the creation of new frontline communities by reducing mine openings. Powering electric vehicles hinges on the availability to extract lithium from reserves. Modelling now shows the likely number of new lithium deposit openings required by 2050 if the demand for larger battery packs continues and suggests moderating battery size and improving recycling to reduce mine openings.