{"title":"用实验数据进行随机化推理的功率和样本量计算的入门","authors":"Brandon Hauser, Mauricio Olivares","doi":"10.1111/1475-5890.70004","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p>This paper revisits the problem of power analysis and sample size calculations in randomised experiments, with a focus on settings where inference on average treatment effects is conducted using randomisation tests. While standard formulas based on the two-sample <span></span><math>\n <semantics>\n <mi>t</mi>\n <annotation>$t$</annotation>\n </semantics></math>-test are widely used in practice, we show that these calculations may yield misleading results when directly applied to randomisation-based inference – unless certain assumptions are met. We demonstrate that differences in potential outcome variances or unequal group sizes can distort the behaviour of the randomisation test, leading to incorrect power and flawed sample size calculations. However, a simple adjustment – studentising the test statistic – restores the validity of the randomisation test in large samples. This adjustment allows researchers to safely apply standard power and sample size formulas, even when using randomisation inference. We extend these results to a range of experimental designs commonly used in applied economics, including stratified randomisation, matched pairs and cluster-randomised trials. Throughout, we provide practical guidance to help researchers ensure that their design-stage calculations remain valid under the inferential methods they plan to use.</p>","PeriodicalId":51602,"journal":{"name":"Fiscal Studies","volume":"46 3","pages":"349-371"},"PeriodicalIF":1.3000,"publicationDate":"2025-09-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"A primer on power and sample size calculations for randomisation inference with experimental data\",\"authors\":\"Brandon Hauser, Mauricio Olivares\",\"doi\":\"10.1111/1475-5890.70004\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<p>This paper revisits the problem of power analysis and sample size calculations in randomised experiments, with a focus on settings where inference on average treatment effects is conducted using randomisation tests. While standard formulas based on the two-sample <span></span><math>\\n <semantics>\\n <mi>t</mi>\\n <annotation>$t$</annotation>\\n </semantics></math>-test are widely used in practice, we show that these calculations may yield misleading results when directly applied to randomisation-based inference – unless certain assumptions are met. We demonstrate that differences in potential outcome variances or unequal group sizes can distort the behaviour of the randomisation test, leading to incorrect power and flawed sample size calculations. However, a simple adjustment – studentising the test statistic – restores the validity of the randomisation test in large samples. This adjustment allows researchers to safely apply standard power and sample size formulas, even when using randomisation inference. We extend these results to a range of experimental designs commonly used in applied economics, including stratified randomisation, matched pairs and cluster-randomised trials. Throughout, we provide practical guidance to help researchers ensure that their design-stage calculations remain valid under the inferential methods they plan to use.</p>\",\"PeriodicalId\":51602,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Fiscal Studies\",\"volume\":\"46 3\",\"pages\":\"349-371\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":1.3000,\"publicationDate\":\"2025-09-07\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Fiscal Studies\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"96\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/1475-5890.70004\",\"RegionNum\":3,\"RegionCategory\":\"经济学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q2\",\"JCRName\":\"BUSINESS, FINANCE\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Fiscal Studies","FirstCategoryId":"96","ListUrlMain":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/1475-5890.70004","RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q2","JCRName":"BUSINESS, FINANCE","Score":null,"Total":0}
A primer on power and sample size calculations for randomisation inference with experimental data
This paper revisits the problem of power analysis and sample size calculations in randomised experiments, with a focus on settings where inference on average treatment effects is conducted using randomisation tests. While standard formulas based on the two-sample -test are widely used in practice, we show that these calculations may yield misleading results when directly applied to randomisation-based inference – unless certain assumptions are met. We demonstrate that differences in potential outcome variances or unequal group sizes can distort the behaviour of the randomisation test, leading to incorrect power and flawed sample size calculations. However, a simple adjustment – studentising the test statistic – restores the validity of the randomisation test in large samples. This adjustment allows researchers to safely apply standard power and sample size formulas, even when using randomisation inference. We extend these results to a range of experimental designs commonly used in applied economics, including stratified randomisation, matched pairs and cluster-randomised trials. Throughout, we provide practical guidance to help researchers ensure that their design-stage calculations remain valid under the inferential methods they plan to use.
期刊介绍:
The Institute for Fiscal Studies publishes the journal Fiscal Studies, which serves as a bridge between academic research and policy. This esteemed journal, established in 1979, has gained global recognition for its publication of high-quality and original research papers. The articles, authored by prominent academics, policymakers, and practitioners, are presented in an accessible format, ensuring a broad international readership.