Impact of land-use changes on the increase in extreme precipitation events in the Lake Victoria Basin

This research investigates the impact of land use and land cover changes on extreme rainfall events in the Lake Victoria Basin (LVB), a region undergoing significant environmental changes. Understanding these influences is crucial for effective land use planning and climate adaptation. The study addresses a knowledge gap by examining how future land cover changes will affect the frequency, intensity, and distribution of extreme rainfall. A multidisciplinary approach combines remote sensing, climate modeling, and hydrological analysis, utilizing Landsat satellite imagery to track historical land use and climate data from CMIP6, CHIRPS, and ERA5. Focusing on the period from 1995 to 2099, the study predicts a 14 % decrease in forest cover and a 7 % to 25 % increase in urbanization. These changes are expected to significantly impact local climate, with a projected 20 % increase in annual maximum daily precipitation (Rx1day) by 2099. Additionally, heavy rainfall days (R10mm) may increase by 5 to 40 days per year, peaking around 2084, 2090, and 2095. The study also forecasts an increase in CDD ranging from 20 to 80 days, emphasizing the need for integrating land management strategies into climate adaptation plans to enhance resilience against future extremes.