How do fears influence public transport behaviors during the peak of the pandemic?

The peak of the COVID-19 pandemic, marked by the rapid spread of the highly contagious Delta variant, presents a paradox: public transport activity not only persisted but increased, contrary to expectations of decline. This study investigates how individuals’ transport behaviors shifted and what factors drove these changes in response to fears of COVID-19 and financial instability. To address this question, we examined public transport behaviors from a novel perspective by introducing two dependent variables: changes in individuals’ actual use of public transport and their short-term transport plans. Our theoretical framework draws on the fear appeal theory, incorporating two primary independent variables—fears for health (COVID-19 related) and fears for financial conditions (pandemic-induced). Logistic regression analysis was conducted using data from the U.S. Census Bureau’s Household Pulse Survey, collected between June and July 2021. The results demonstrate significant impacts of both health-related and financial fears on public transport behaviors. An important insight is that risk-related pressures during the Delta wave were dynamic over short periods: indicators of health risk and pandemic-related financial insecurity predicted recent transit use differently than they predicted short-term trip planning. We interpret this pattern through a fear-appeal informed lens, treating variables as contextual proxies for threat exposure and resource constraints rather than direct measures of emotional states. To capture this dynamic, we introduce the concept of “threat (fear) salience transition,” which underscores the shifting nature of perceived risks. These findings offer practical implications for transit policy, particularly in managing evolving public responses under simultaneous health and financial pressures.