{"title":"具有协方差矩阵自适应的贝叶斯反问题的有效马尔可夫链蒙特卡罗抽样","authors":"Kun Zhang , Hui Wu , Jiangjiang Zhang , Songjun Wu","doi":"10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.134235","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Bayesian inference provides a principled framework for solving inverse problems, yet efficient sampling of high-dimensional non-Gaussian posterior distributions remains challenging for conventional Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. This study introduces the covariance matrix adaptation Metropolis (CMAM) algorithm, an efficient MCMC approach that synergistically integrates the population-based covariance matrix adaptation evolution strategy (CMA-ES) optimization algorithm with Metropolis sampling. The proposed CMAM employs multiple parallel chains to enhance exploration in Bayesian inversion and leverages the adaptive mechanisms of CMA-ES to dynamically adapt both the direction and scale of proposal distributions. A decoupled Metropolis acceptance mechanism ensures proper Markov chain construction throughout the adaptation process. The method further incorporates augmentation and dual adaptation strategies, utilizing information from rejected samples and dual CMA-ES optimizations, to improve robustness in multimodal and high-dimensional scenarios. Theoretical analysis confirms ergodicity of the proposed method. Numerical benchmarks demonstrate that CMAM is capable of sampling with sub-dimensional chains, while still achieving comparable performance in inversion accuracy and convergence efficiency to state-of-the-art multi-chain adaptive MCMC methods. Hydrogeological case studies further show that CMAM accurately reconstructs spatially heterogeneous conductivity fields and simultaneously identifies contaminant source locations and release histories. These results highlight CMAM as a practical tool for Bayesian inference in real-world hydrological and environmental applications.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":362,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Hydrology","volume":"663 ","pages":"Article 134235"},"PeriodicalIF":6.3000,"publicationDate":"2025-09-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Efficient Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling for Bayesian inverse problems with covariance matrix adaptation\",\"authors\":\"Kun Zhang , Hui Wu , Jiangjiang Zhang , Songjun Wu\",\"doi\":\"10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.134235\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<div><div>Bayesian inference provides a principled framework for solving inverse problems, yet efficient sampling of high-dimensional non-Gaussian posterior distributions remains challenging for conventional Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. This study introduces the covariance matrix adaptation Metropolis (CMAM) algorithm, an efficient MCMC approach that synergistically integrates the population-based covariance matrix adaptation evolution strategy (CMA-ES) optimization algorithm with Metropolis sampling. The proposed CMAM employs multiple parallel chains to enhance exploration in Bayesian inversion and leverages the adaptive mechanisms of CMA-ES to dynamically adapt both the direction and scale of proposal distributions. A decoupled Metropolis acceptance mechanism ensures proper Markov chain construction throughout the adaptation process. The method further incorporates augmentation and dual adaptation strategies, utilizing information from rejected samples and dual CMA-ES optimizations, to improve robustness in multimodal and high-dimensional scenarios. Theoretical analysis confirms ergodicity of the proposed method. Numerical benchmarks demonstrate that CMAM is capable of sampling with sub-dimensional chains, while still achieving comparable performance in inversion accuracy and convergence efficiency to state-of-the-art multi-chain adaptive MCMC methods. Hydrogeological case studies further show that CMAM accurately reconstructs spatially heterogeneous conductivity fields and simultaneously identifies contaminant source locations and release histories. These results highlight CMAM as a practical tool for Bayesian inference in real-world hydrological and environmental applications.</div></div>\",\"PeriodicalId\":362,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Journal of Hydrology\",\"volume\":\"663 \",\"pages\":\"Article 134235\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":6.3000,\"publicationDate\":\"2025-09-20\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Journal of Hydrology\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"89\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0022169425015732\",\"RegionNum\":1,\"RegionCategory\":\"地球科学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q1\",\"JCRName\":\"ENGINEERING, CIVIL\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Journal of Hydrology","FirstCategoryId":"89","ListUrlMain":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0022169425015732","RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"ENGINEERING, CIVIL","Score":null,"Total":0}
Efficient Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling for Bayesian inverse problems with covariance matrix adaptation
Bayesian inference provides a principled framework for solving inverse problems, yet efficient sampling of high-dimensional non-Gaussian posterior distributions remains challenging for conventional Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. This study introduces the covariance matrix adaptation Metropolis (CMAM) algorithm, an efficient MCMC approach that synergistically integrates the population-based covariance matrix adaptation evolution strategy (CMA-ES) optimization algorithm with Metropolis sampling. The proposed CMAM employs multiple parallel chains to enhance exploration in Bayesian inversion and leverages the adaptive mechanisms of CMA-ES to dynamically adapt both the direction and scale of proposal distributions. A decoupled Metropolis acceptance mechanism ensures proper Markov chain construction throughout the adaptation process. The method further incorporates augmentation and dual adaptation strategies, utilizing information from rejected samples and dual CMA-ES optimizations, to improve robustness in multimodal and high-dimensional scenarios. Theoretical analysis confirms ergodicity of the proposed method. Numerical benchmarks demonstrate that CMAM is capable of sampling with sub-dimensional chains, while still achieving comparable performance in inversion accuracy and convergence efficiency to state-of-the-art multi-chain adaptive MCMC methods. Hydrogeological case studies further show that CMAM accurately reconstructs spatially heterogeneous conductivity fields and simultaneously identifies contaminant source locations and release histories. These results highlight CMAM as a practical tool for Bayesian inference in real-world hydrological and environmental applications.
期刊介绍:
The Journal of Hydrology publishes original research papers and comprehensive reviews in all the subfields of the hydrological sciences including water based management and policy issues that impact on economics and society. These comprise, but are not limited to the physical, chemical, biogeochemical, stochastic and systems aspects of surface and groundwater hydrology, hydrometeorology and hydrogeology. Relevant topics incorporating the insights and methodologies of disciplines such as climatology, water resource systems, hydraulics, agrohydrology, geomorphology, soil science, instrumentation and remote sensing, civil and environmental engineering are included. Social science perspectives on hydrological problems such as resource and ecological economics, environmental sociology, psychology and behavioural science, management and policy analysis are also invited. Multi-and interdisciplinary analyses of hydrological problems are within scope. The science published in the Journal of Hydrology is relevant to catchment scales rather than exclusively to a local scale or site.