Spatiotemporal Dynamics and Drivers of Ecosystem Health Integrating Sustainable Development Goals: A Case Study of Qilian Mountain National Park, China

Ecosystem health (EH) assessment is crucial for understanding ecological dynamics, supporting environmental conservation, and promoting regional sustainable development. However, existing evaluation frameworks often emphasize ecosystem structure and function while lacking integration with sustainable development goals (SDGs), thereby failing to reflect the coupled dynamics of ecological integrity, service provision, and socio-economic sustainability. To address this gap, this study aims to construct an integrated ecosystem health-service-sustainability (EHSS) assessment framework by incorporating SDGs into the vigor-organization-resilience-services (VORS) model in order to systematically evaluate the coupled dynamics of socio-ecological systems among ecological health, ecosystem services, and human well-being. This framework is applied to Qilian Mountain National Park (QLMNP) from 2000 to 2020 to investigate the spatiotemporal dynamics and driving mechanisms of EHSS. The results reveal a general spatial pattern of “higher in the east, lower in the west” and a temporal trend of “first increasing, then declining.” While township-level transitions were frequent, spatial clustering remained stable with notable local fluctuations. Using XGBoost–SHAP, we identify precipitation, temperature, and elevation as key drivers, with nonlinear and spatially heterogeneous impacts. Optimal recovery conditions occur below 3853 m elevation, with 451–639 mm of annual precipitation and temperatures ranging from −4.38°C to 5.10°C. These findings provide valuable insights for ecosystem restoration and sustainable development in fragile regions.