Ana María Puerto, José Eugenio Lozano, Marcos Lozano, Luca Basile, Gael Naveira-Barbeito, Inés Guiu Cañete, Juan Antonio Linares Dópido, Ana Fernández Ibáñez, Ana Carmen Ibáñez Pérez, Daniel Castrillejo, Eva Rivas Wagner, María Ángel Valcárcel de la Iglesia, Esteban Pérez Morilla, Isabel Martínez-Pino, Tomás Vega, Susana Monge, SiVIRA-MEM collaborators
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Establishing Epidemic and Intensity Thresholds After a Major Change in Respiratory Virus Surveillance in Spain in 2020
Objectives
We estimated acute respiratory infections (ARIs) and influenza-like illness (ILI) thresholds for SiVIRA, a new integrated surveillance system set up in Spain in 2020.
Methods
We retrospectively extracted diagnostic codes from primary healthcare databases between Weeks 30/2010 and 39/2021, using methods similar to SiVIRA. Epidemic and intensity thresholds were estimated using the moving epidemic method (MEM).
Results
The epidemic threshold for the 2024–2025 season was 400 cases per 100,000 persons for ARI and 36 for ILI, and medium, high, and very high intensity thresholds were 953, 1079, and 1139 for ARI and 167, 218, and 246 for ILI, estimating low intensity.
Conclusions
Reconstructing the historical series using electronic health records was possible and allowed the estimation of thresholds. Experience gained will guide the choice of MEM parameters in the future.
期刊介绍：
Influenza and Other Respiratory Viruses is the official journal of the International Society of Influenza and Other Respiratory Virus Diseases - an independent scientific professional society - dedicated to promoting the prevention, detection, treatment, and control of influenza and other respiratory virus diseases.
Influenza and Other Respiratory Viruses is an Open Access journal. Copyright on any research article published by Influenza and Other Respiratory Viruses is retained by the author(s). Authors grant Wiley a license to publish the article and identify itself as the original publisher. Authors also grant any third party the right to use the article freely as long as its integrity is maintained and its original authors, citation details and publisher are identified.
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