Study on the multi-scenario water resources vulnerability assessment and its influencing factors in the Kaidu River Basin considering ecological water demand

Study region

The Kaidu River Basin (Xinjiang)

Study focus

Ecological water demand is a key element for maintaining the stability of the water cycle and ensuring the sustainable allocation of water resources. This study aims to incorporate the key indicator of ecological water demand, which characterizes the health of the water ecosystem, into the evaluation system. Based on the Vulnerability Scoping Diagram (VSD) framework, a climate-hydrology-socioeconomic multi-element coupled evaluation model was constructed. Combining multiple prediction methods such as bias correction, SWAT model and linear regression. The water resources vulnerability and variation characteristics in different scenarios were analyzed, and the influence degree of each factor on the water resources vulnerability was clarified.

New hydrological insights for the region

According to the analysis of water resources vulnerability, compared with the historical period (2000–2020), the vulnerability value in the future period (2026–2050) will increase. Anthropogenic factors have a more pronounced impact on the water resources vulnerability, while natural meteorological conditions have a relatively balanced impact. Meanwhile, with a goal of reducing future vulnerability by 10 %, the greatest challenge lies in reducing the sensitivity of water resources in the basin, followed by exposure, with adaptability being the least challenging. The research findings provide scientific decision-making references for the management of water resources and development in typical basins of the Northwest arid region.