陆地卫星观测揭示鄱阳湖在过去30年的萎缩：可能与当地气候变化和上游大坝建设有关

IF 5 2区地球科学 Q1 WATER RESOURCES

Journal of Hydrology-Regional Studies Pub Date : 2025-09-22 DOI:10.1016/j.ejrh.2025.102785

Yue Yuan , Mingsheng Shang , Dongmin Wang , Guang Li , Meiling Liu , Ling Wu , Shuaipeng Wang , Botian Zhou

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引用次数: 0

摘要

研究区域鄱阳湖及其上游水文网络研究重点鄱阳湖具有重要的淡水供应、洪水调节和生态系统维护作用。然而，近几十年来，它经历了日益严重的淡水资源短缺。因此，了解湖泊淹没的时空动态及其驱动力至关重要。本研究开发了一种基于深度学习的识别框架，该框架将知识引导的自适应融合网络与概率映射相结合。利用谷歌Earth Engine平台上1994 - 2023年批量处理的Landsat图像，绘制了湖泊淹没图并分析了时间趋势。结果表明，鄱阳湖的淹没程度具有明显的年际和季节波动。近30年来，年平均和年最小淹没面积均呈现显著的下降趋势（分别为- 16.43 km2/yr和- 21.51 km2/yr）。因果分析强调了当地气候条件和上游水文变化在多个时间尺度上的影响。这一发现为解释淡水资源变化提供了一种新方法，并提醒人们不要将鄱阳湖的萎缩仅仅归因于当地气候变化或上游大坝建设。

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Landsat observations reveal Lake Poyang shrinkage over the past 30 Years: Possible association with local climate change and upstream dam construction

Study region

Lake Poyang and its upstream hydrographic network

Study focus

Lake Poyang plays a critical role in freshwater supply, flood regulation, and ecosystem maintenance. However, it has experienced increasing freshwater resource scarcity in recent decades. Understanding the spatiotemporal dynamics of lake inundation and its driving forces is therefore essential. This study develops a deep learning-based identification framework that integrates a knowledge-guided adaptive fusion network with probability mapping. Using batch-processed Landsat imagery from 1994 to 2023 on the Google Earth Engine platform, lake inundation was mapped and temporal trends were analysed.

New hydrological insights for the region

The results reveal pronounced interannual and seasonal fluctuations in Lake Poyang’s inundation extent. Both the yearly mean and yearly minimum inundated areas exhibit statistically significant declining trends over the past 30 years (−16.43 km²/yr and −21.51 km²/yr, respectively). Causal analyses highlight the influence of local climatic conditions and upstream hydrological changes across multiple temporal scales. The findings offer a novel method for attributing freshwater resource change and caution against attributing Lake Poyang’s shrinkage solely to either local climate change or upstream dam construction.

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来源期刊

Journal of Hydrology-Regional Studies Earth and Planetary Sciences-Earth and Planetary Sciences (miscellaneous)

CiteScore

6.70

自引率

8.50%

发文量

284

审稿时长

60 days

期刊介绍： Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies publishes original research papers enhancing the science of hydrology and aiming at region-specific problems, past and future conditions, analysis, review and solutions. The journal particularly welcomes research papers that deliver new insights into region-specific hydrological processes and responses to changing conditions, as well as contributions that incorporate interdisciplinarity and translational science.