Space mission safety assurance: Cybersecurity attack scenarios and risk assessment

Cybersecurity threats to critical infrastructure have advanced beyond traditional concerns such as data breaches and financial extortion, evolving into sophisticated attacks by nation-state and organized criminal entities. In particular, Space-based infrastructure faces unique vulnerabilities, where cyber intrusions can disrupt satellite operations, degrade critical services, and compromise the safety of crewed missions. The current absence of robust legal frameworks and comprehensive cybersecurity provisions within international space regulations poses significant challenges to mission resilience and incident response. Concurrently, the integration of Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Machine Learning (ML) into space systems introduces both operational advantages and novel cybersecurity risks. The lack of normative guidance or “soft law” for AI-driven space applications further amplifies these vulnerabilities, increasing the overall mission safety risk. This study proposes a goal-oriented attack tree framework to systematically identify and analyze emerging cyberattack scenarios relevant to space operations. Each scenario is evaluated using a safety risk matrix based on the likelihood of occurrence and potential operational impact. Additionally, this paper surveys existing AI/ML implementations in space systems and describes the unique threat vectors. The proposed framework aims to advance cybersecurity risk management practices and extend the preventative scope against cyber threats, particularly those affecting satellite navigation and mission-critical systems.