Soil resilience to degradation in Poland by 2050 under climate and land use change

In Poland, approximately 62,000 ha of soil are degraded due to soil threats (ST). The spatial distribution and intensity of these threats evolve as a result of climate and land use changes. This study evaluates the co-occurrence of soil organic carbon (SOC) loss, erosion, compaction, and soil water retention (SWR), identifying areas susceptible to degradation, resistance, and soil resilience in Poland by 2050 under land use change and an extreme climate change scenario (SSP5-8.5, representing a high-emission pathway). For the first time in Poland, our findings demonstrate the co-occurrence of ST and reduced SWR by 2050, projecting that 47% of Polish soils may face some level of degradation, primarily due to compaction, erosion, SOC loss, and reduced SWR. The most affected areas are in the north, northeast, central, and the Carpathians. The Soil Condition Degradation Index (SCDI) classified 31% of soils as having low susceptibility to degradation, 10% as moderate, 2% as high, and 0.1% as having very high susceptibility to degradation. Conversely, the Resilience and Resistance Index (RRI) shows that 29% of soils will remain resistant or resilient to degradation, with 0.2% showing significant resilience (to three ST), 13% of soils will be resilient to two ST, and 16% remaining stable, showing resistance to change. The presented approach enables the identification of hotspots for targeted management under climate and land use changes, supporting environmental policies, especially the new EU Directive on Soil Monitoring and Resilience (Soil Monitoring Law), and sustainable land management.