China's foreign aid and inbound tourism: Reciprocity, dependency, and nonlinear dynamics

This study examines the linear and nonlinear effects of China's foreign aid on inbound tourism across 80 countries from 2002 to 2019, using a dual-layer framework based on Social Exchange Theory (SET) and Dependency Theory. The framework, “Aid–Reciprocity–Tourism Demand,” investigates how foreign aid affects tourism through reciprocity and dependency mechanisms. The analysis reveals several key findings. SET's “micro-macro” reciprocity mechanism shows that foreign aid positively impacts inbound tourism, with variations based on the type of aid and recipient income levels. Under Dependency Theory, an inverted U-shaped relationship is found, where moderate aid boosts tourism demand, but excessive aid decreases it by undermining recipient autonomy. This effect is more evident in Asia, while Africa experiences a delayed “big push effect.” The long-term impact of China's foreign aid peaks after one period and diminishes after three. The findings offer policy recommendations to optimize foreign aid's role in promoting tourism.