数值实验设计在Breeze事件分析软件氯泄漏后果分析中的应用

IF 3.4
Paulin Pah Yen Ling,  and , Mohamad Syazarudin Md Said*, 
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引用次数: 0

摘要

尽管各种研究已经将数值实验设计和响应面方法(RSM)与结果建模工具相结合,用于气体分散预测,但仍然需要一种更通用、更健壮的方法。这种方法应该考虑到不同的工业环境,包括海上和陆上,以及不同的环境条件,包括大气参数、风和地形。本研究将数值实验设计与BREEZE事件分析软件相结合,以模拟工业环境中的氯气分散。研究了风速、泄漏孔直径、释放高度、环境温度和表面粗糙度五个自变量对下风距离达到特定毒性阈值水平的影响。发现了显著的相互作用,而释放高度对气体分散的影响最小。使用RSM建立了经过验证的预测模型,然后进行优化以确定最坏情况,定义为最大下风距离ERPG-2水平(氯含量为3 ppm)。优化结果表明,在风速1.5 m/s、泄漏直径0.076 m、环境温度38℃、城市地表粗糙度条件下,最坏情况发生。该研究表明,将数值实验设计与结果建模相结合,可以提高气体分散预测的准确性和可靠性,同时最大限度地减少不确定性。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。

Application of Numerical Experimental Design in Consequence Analysis of Chlorine Release Using Breeze Incident Analyst Software

Application of Numerical Experimental Design in Consequence Analysis of Chlorine Release Using Breeze Incident Analyst Software

Although various studies have applied numerical experimental design and response surface methodology (RSM) in combination with consequence modeling tools for gas dispersion prediction, there remains a need for a more generalizable and robust approach. Such an approach should account for diverse industrial settings, both offshore and onshore, and variable environmental conditions including atmospheric parameters, wind, and topography. This study integrates numerical experimental design with BREEZE Incident Analyst software to model chlorine gas dispersion in an industrial environment. The effects of five independent variables, which are wind speed, leakage hole diameter, release height, ambient temperature, and surface roughness, on the downwind distance to a specific toxic threshold level were investigated. Significant interactions were identified, while the release height was found to have a minimal influence on gas dispersion. Well-validated predictive models were developed using RSM, followed by optimization to identify the worst-case scenario, defined as the maximum downwind distance to the ERPG-2 level (3 ppm for chlorine). The optimization results indicated that the worst-case scenario occurs under conditions of 1.5 m/s wind speed, 0.076 m leakage diameter, 38 °C ambient temperature, and urban surface roughness. This study demonstrates the effectiveness of integrating numerical experimental design with consequence modeling to enhance the accuracy and reliability of gas dispersion predictions while minimizing uncertainties.

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