城市燃气管道泄漏爆炸风险控制方法研究

IF 3.4
Hankun Li, , , Renren Zhang*, , , Runquan Li*, , , Jie Ma, , , Jinhao Wen, , , Songwenbo Chen, , and , Xinhong Li, 
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引用次数: 0

摘要

为了防止城市燃气管道泄漏引起的爆炸事故,了解导致管道失效的因素和控制事故后果演变的机制至关重要,从而能够制定全面的泄漏前风险管理和泄漏后应急响应策略。本研究采用贝叶斯网络(BN)和影响图(ID)建立了城市燃气管道泄漏爆炸事件的鲁棒风险控制模型。根据管道安装场景,对管道进行分段,识别每段管道的失效风险因素,构建管道失效BN模型;随后,利用事件序列图(event sequence diagrams, ESD)分析事故后果的演化路径,然后将其转化为BN模型,并与管道失效BN模型集成,形成一个既能捕获失效机制又能捕获事故结果的完整框架。识别关键风险因素并提出相应的控制措施,从而建立贝叶斯ID模型,该模型综合考虑这些措施的有效性和成本影响,以选择最优的风险控制策略。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。

A Study on Risk Control Methods for Urban Gas Pipeline Leak and Explosion

A Study on Risk Control Methods for Urban Gas Pipeline Leak and Explosion

To prevent explosion accidents arising from urban gas pipeline leaks, it is crucial to understand both the factors that lead to pipeline failure and the mechanisms that govern the evolution of accident consequences, thereby enabling the development of comprehensive preleak risk management and postleak emergency response strategies. This study employs Bayesian networks (BN) and influence diagrams (ID) to establish a robust risk control model for urban gas pipeline leak and explosion incidents. Based on pipeline installation scenarios, the pipelines are segmented to identify failure risk factors in each section, resulting in the construction of a BN model for pipeline failures; subsequently, event sequence diagrams (ESD) are utilized to analyze the evolutionary pathways of accident consequences, which are then translated into a BN model and integrated with the pipeline failure BN model to form a complete framework that captures both failure mechanisms and accident outcomes. Key risk factors are identified and corresponding control measures are proposed, leading to the development of a Bayesian ID model that comprehensively considers the effectiveness and cost implications of these measures in order to select the optimal risk control strategy.

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