Mapping and Modelling Specific Sediment Yield and Future Soil Erosion Trends in the Jhelum Catchment, India

Soil erosion management is a crucial component of sustainable soil and water management, especially in regions where agricultural productivity is at risk and areas that are more vulnerable to the impacts of climate change, such as the Himalayan region. This study explores soil erosion dynamics in the Jhelum Catchment, India, using advanced mapping and modelling techniques to analyse and predict trends of potential soil loss from 2020 to 2090. The study integrates the RUSLE model with projected climate to assess the impact of climate change on soil erosion and rainfall erosivity. The InVEST SDR model is used to quantify sediment transport and specific sediment yield, enhancing our understanding of the hydrological processes that drive soil erosion and sediment mobilisation in the Jhelum Catchment. The RUSLE, along with advanced climate modelling, land-use data, and spatial analysis, is used in this study to predict trends in soil erosion. Climate data from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) is combined with data from the India Meteorological Department (IMD) to project rainfall erosivity (R). R, along with soil erodibility (K), slope length and steepness (LS), land cover (C), and support practices (P) factors, are mapped and applied in the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE) model, which evaluates the potential for soil erosion. This study forecasts soil loss trends by combining climate data, land-use information, and spatial analysis from 2020 to 2090 under two scenarios [SSP245 (moderate emissions) and SSP585 (high emissions)]. Results indicate escalating soil loss, particularly in less severe areas in 2020, highlighting the dynamic threat. The mean value of soil loss for SSP245 exhibits a continuous rise from 46.17 t/ha/year in 2030 to 51.54 t/ha/year in 2090. SSP585 shows a more severe trend, peaking at 71.67 t/ha/year in 2090. The study also classifies potential soil loss into severity classes, observing a decrease in the percentage area of less severe classes over time. Soil erosion class-wise projections from 2020 to 2090, based on LULC and soil type, reveal trends across various categories of land use, including Agriculture, Forest, Built-up Areas, and Grass/Grazing Land, as well as soil types like Cambisols, Lithosols, Glaciers, and Inland Water. These results highlight the urgent need for proactive interventions, offering practical insights for sustainable land management and providing actionable guidance for strategic planning and policy development focused on sustainable agricultural practices and climate change adaptation. This novel approach integrates advanced modelling and GIS-based analysis, making it applicable to other catchments with similar climate and land-use challenges. The study's findings directly apply to informing land management strategies, making the research highly relevant and practical.