Climate-driven habitat shifts and conservation gaps for Himalayan Solomon’s Seal (Polygonatum cirrhifolium (Wall) Royle) in Nepal Himalaya

Medicinal plants in the Nepal Himalaya are important commodities for the sustenance of local livelihoods and the national economy. Therefore, assessing the impact of climate change on highly valued medicinal plants is a critical need given their substantial vulnerability. Polygonatum cirrhifolium is an important medicinal plant of the Nepal Himalaya, contributing substantially to rural livelihoods and the national economy. In this study, using Maxent, we modelled the climate-driven habitat shifts and conservation gaps to P. cirrhifolium under current and four Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs: 1–2.6, 2–4.5, 3–7.0, and 5–8.5) for multiple timeframes from 2021 to 2100. Our results revealed that evapotranspiration, annual precipitation, and temperature seasonality are the major factors affecting the distribution of P. cirrhifolium in the Nepal Himalaya. Habitat modelling reveals that for the current scenario, only 8.74 % of Nepal’s area is predicted to be suitable habitat, with only ca 20 % area occurring within the protected area systems (PAs). Future predictions indicate habitat contraction for most scenarios/periods, while expansion for some scenarios/periods. Gap analysis revealed that over 80 % of suitable areas both for the current and all future scenarios/ periods lie outside PAs, indicating increased vulnerability from overharvesting and habitat disruption. We suggest protecting identified climate refugia, establishing conservation zones and habitat corridors among climate refugia, enforcing sustainable harvest regulations, and implementing assisted migration to newly identified habitats, all supported by strengthened policy, continuous monitoring, and community engagement, as the key strategies to ensure the long-term conservation of P. cirrhifolium in the Nepal Himalaya. The findings provide actionable insights for climate-resilient conservation planning of high-value medicinal plants in the Himalaya.