Does first arrest change perceptions of arrest risk? Evidence from a matched analysis of youth in the U.S.

Deterrence theory assumes that legal sanctions increase perceived certainty of arrest, thereby discouraging future offending. However, little is known about how adolescents revise their perceptions following a first arrest, particularly across gender. This study examines whether a first arrest during adolescence alters perceived risk of arrest, using data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1997. A 2 × 2 difference-indifferences design with propensity score matching is employed to estimate the effect of first arrest on perceived risk of arrest. Results indicate no significant change in perceived risk of arrest for the overall sample, a significant decrease among females, and no significant effect among males. These findings contribute to an expanded understanding of specific deterrence by indicating that punitive contact may, for some youth, reduce rather than strengthen deterrent beliefs. Gender-responsive and developmentally informed policies are needed to ensure that justice interventions achieve their intended effects.