允许模拟的长期对流的非平稳频率分析揭示了欧洲中南部次日极端降水变化

IF 4.2 2区环境科学与生态学 Q1 WATER RESOURCES

Advances in Water Resources Pub Date : 2025-08-05 DOI:10.1016/j.advwatres.2025.105071

Marco Lompi, Francesco Marra, Roberto Deidda, Enrica Caporali, Marco Borga, Eleonora Dallan

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引用次数: 0

摘要

评估气候变化对极端降水的影响是调整减轻洪水战略的一项关键任务。目前，对流允许模式（CPM）是模拟当前和未来极端降水的最先进工具，因为它们明确地表示对流过程，优于分辨率较粗的气候模式。然而，CPM在计算上要求很高，而且通常限于十年周期，因此可能更容易受到内部变率的影响。

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Non-stationary frequency analysis of long-term convection permitting simulations reveals sub-daily extreme precipitation changes in central-southern Europe

Assessing the impact of climate change on extreme precipitation is a critical task for adapting flood mitigation strategies. Nowadays, Convection Permitting Models (CPM) are the state-of-the-art tool to simulate current and future extreme precipitation, as they explicitly represent convective processes, outperforming climate models with coarser resolutions. Nevertheless, CPM are computationally demanding and typically limited to decadal periods, making them potentially more affected by internal variability.

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来源期刊

Advances in Water Resources 环境科学-水资源

CiteScore

9.40

自引率

6.40%

发文量

171

审稿时长

36 days

期刊介绍： Advances in Water Resources provides a forum for the presentation of fundamental scientific advances in the understanding of water resources systems. The scope of Advances in Water Resources includes any combination of theoretical, computational, and experimental approaches used to advance fundamental understanding of surface or subsurface water resources systems or the interaction of these systems with the atmosphere, geosphere, biosphere, and human societies. Manuscripts involving case studies that do not attempt to reach broader conclusions, research on engineering design, applied hydraulics, or water quality and treatment, as well as applications of existing knowledge that do not advance fundamental understanding of hydrological processes, are not appropriate for Advances in Water Resources. Examples of appropriate topical areas that will be considered include the following: • Surface and subsurface hydrology • Hydrometeorology • Environmental fluid dynamics • Ecohydrology and ecohydrodynamics • Multiphase transport phenomena in porous media • Fluid flow and species transport and reaction processes