Land use and carbon stock changes in China: spatiotemporal evolution and forecasting analysis

In response to global warming, food security, and other urgent challenges, examining the impact of land use changes is essential for China to effectively address these issues. By integrating carbon stock data with future land use projections, this approach can facilitate rational land planning, thereby balancing environmental protection with economic development. This study examined the changes in land use and carbon storage in China from 2005 to 2020 using MODIS data, and projected future trends. First, we analyzed the spatiotemporal patterns of land use change using methods including land use dynamics, land use change rate, land use change intensity, and transition matrix analysis. Next, we investigated the driving forces behind land use change by examining seven key factors: digital elevation model (DEM), gross domestic product (GDP), precipitation, population density, soil type, temperature, and distance to water. Finally, we utilized the InVEST model to quantify carbon storage and the PLUS model to simulate and predict land use under three scenarios for the year 2030: natural development (S1), economic development (S2), and cropland protection (S3). The key findings were as follows: (1) Land use changes in China were quantitatively analyzed using various parameters, and corresponding carbon stock changes were assessed, (2) Predictions for land use in 2030 under the three scenarios were generated, achieving a Kappa coefficient of 88.94%, and projected carbon stock changes were estimated based on these results, (3) Soil type and population density were identified as critical driving factors influencing land use changes from 2005 to 2020, and the effects of these changes on carbon stocks were thoroughly analyzed. These findings offer valuable insights for policy formulation and optimization of land use patterns in China. This research promotes ecosystem protection and restoration to enhance carbon sequestration, improves cropland policies to balance food security and carbon reduction, enables region-specific land management, and provides scientific guidance for adaptive land use strategies.